Reads as: riskier than 87.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SPEAKS KATHY
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
COOPER BENJAMIN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
COOPER JAMES
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
HEALTH CARE SOLUTIONS LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.6 vs natl
DVORAK NORA
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCGINNIS LARRY
36 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PHARMACY CONSULTS LLC
35 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.16
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
42.6
3.10
0.34
0.49
2.27
2.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
46.2
2.90
0.33
0.48
2.09
2.68
0.0%
2025Q2
91
44.7
3.02
0.22
0.64
2.16
2.78
0.0%
2025Q1
90
45.4
2.66
0.27
0.61
1.78
2.47
0.0%
2024Q4
92
44.6
2.72
0.14
0.56
2.02
2.49
0.0%
2024Q3
92
43.1
2.84
0.07
0.61
2.16
2.61
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.1
3.04
0.18
0.62
2.23
2.75
0.0%
2024Q1
91
41.1
3.10
0.15
0.73
2.22
2.86
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.7
2.92
0.05
0.88
1.99
2.78
0.0%
2023Q3
92
39.6
3.44
0.02
1.10
2.33
3.33
0.0%
2023Q2
91
44.9
3.29
0.21
0.90
2.19
2.95
0.0%
2023Q1
90
50.3
2.89
0.20
0.72
1.97
2.67
0.0%
2022Q4
92
48.3
2.99
0.03
0.80
2.16
2.85
0.0%
2022Q3
92
48.6
2.91
0.03
0.94
1.95
2.63
0.0%
2022Q2
91
51.0
3.25
0.10
0.97
2.18
2.57
0.0%
2022Q1
90
56.0
2.67
0.04
0.84
1.78
2.19
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 12E × 12F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-19
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
E
2024-12-19
2024-11-19
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-12-19
2024-07-11
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-08-09
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-02-21
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-01-06
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-01-06
2023-06-13
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2023-07-11
2023-06-13
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-07-11
2023-06-13
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-07-11
2023-04-21
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0741
Ensure that the facility has sufficient staff members who possess the competencies and skills to meet the behavioral health needs of residents.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-05-21
2023-04-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-05-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMS, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
DVORAK, NORA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIS, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH CARE SOLUTIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
INCITE REHAB, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOEHLER, TOBEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LARSON, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
LTC SYSTEMS/RX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAINORD, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGINNIS, LARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEDIGO, RITA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACY CONSULTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANCE HEALTH CARE, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCRIBNER, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
SPEAKS, KATHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ELLIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SCRIBNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2024-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORA DVORAK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOBEY KOEHLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY SPEAKS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MCGINNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RITA PEDIGO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN LARSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WILLIAM MAINORD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$465,754
—
—
$85,952
$88,408
13
—
2023-12-31
$506,931
—
—
$120,598
$91,381
13
—
2022-12-31
$471,249
—
—
$116,064
$87,157
13
—
2021-12-31
$437,581
—
—
$143,725
$74,351
13
—
2020-12-31
$544,810
—
—
$195,633
$112,949
13
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05005
acs median gross
0
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
fmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05005
acs median gross
1
$551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
fmr
1
$735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05005
acs median gross
2
$829
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
fmr
2
$964
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05005
acs median gross
3
$1,054
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
fmr
3
$1,274
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05005
acs median gross
4
$983
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
fmr
4
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05005
acs median gross
$846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05005
acs recent mover gross
$838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72635
acs median gross
1
$312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72635
acs median gross
2
$846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72635
acs median gross
3
$898
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72635
acs median gross
$809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72635
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 110
4
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
payment standard 90
4
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72635
safmr
4
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.