Composite
85.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 90.0 | 90.0 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 32.14 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 60.3 | 51.6 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 25.84 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 51.6 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 90.0 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 51.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 90.0 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.54 | +0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 1.00 | -1.05 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.54 | +0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.78 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.54 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.42 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.58 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 42.9 | 2.54 | 0.20 | 0.61 | 1.73 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 42.9 | 2.50 | 0.19 | 0.66 | 1.65 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 42.9 | 2.42 | 0.20 | 0.61 | 1.62 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 42.9 | 2.30 | 0.19 | 0.54 | 1.57 | 2.31 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 43.0 | 2.31 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 43.0 | 2.37 | 0.18 | 0.62 | 1.56 | 2.31 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 42.9 | 2.40 | 0.21 | 0.64 | 1.55 | 2.30 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 42.9 | 2.42 | 0.23 | 0.70 | 1.49 | 2.35 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 42.9 | 2.34 | 0.19 | 0.71 | 1.43 | 2.28 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 42.9 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 0.69 | 1.47 | 2.32 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 42.8 | 2.18 | 0.20 | 0.55 | 1.43 | 2.18 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 42.8 | 2.07 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 1.34 | 2.03 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 43.0 | 2.18 | 0.17 | 0.66 | 1.35 | 2.13 | 0.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 42.9 | 2.22 | 0.19 | 0.68 | 1.35 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 42.9 | 2.30 | 0.18 | 0.65 | 1.46 | 2.22 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 43.0 | 2.22 | 0.18 | 0.67 | 1.37 | 2.27 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-11-18 |
| 2025-08-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-08-14 |
| 2025-06-17 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-07-03 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-02-15 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | E | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-02-11 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | D | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-20 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-01-13 |
| 2024-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2024-12-16 |
| 2024-10-30 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2024-11-18 |
| 2024-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-11 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-09-12 |
| 2024-05-22 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-06-12 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | D | 2024-05-30 |
| 2024-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-05-03 |
| 2024-02-22 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-03-13 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | D | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-12-14 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-01-18 |
| 2023-10-26 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-11-22 |
| 2023-09-18 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-10-03 |
| 2023-07-19 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-08-17 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,401 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,454 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,813 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,156 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,310 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91768 | acs median gross | $1,683 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91768 | acs recent mover gross | $1,784 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,575 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | safmr | 0 | $1,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,156 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,764 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | safmr | 1 | $1,960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,196 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | safmr | 2 | $2,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,399 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | safmr | 3 | $3,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,784 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,096 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91768 | safmr | 4 | $3,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |