Reads as: riskier than 12.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MEZA MICHAEL
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ID median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.30
3.34
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.71
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.10
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.38
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
30.6
4.30
0.71
0.52
3.07
4.10
1.4%
2025Q3
92
31.6
3.89
0.63
0.41
2.85
3.87
3.1%
2025Q2
91
30.0
4.10
0.60
0.54
2.97
3.83
2.0%
2025Q1
90
32.6
3.70
0.66
0.33
2.70
3.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
32.1
3.77
0.76
0.33
2.69
3.50
0.0%
2024Q3
92
32.1
3.51
0.51
0.42
2.59
3.03
0.0%
2024Q2
91
31.5
3.58
0.46
0.61
2.51
3.03
0.0%
2024Q1
91
32.7
3.75
0.49
0.60
2.65
3.25
0.0%
2023Q4
92
32.2
3.57
0.51
0.60
2.47
3.16
0.0%
2023Q3
92
30.6
3.94
0.55
0.72
2.67
3.35
0.0%
2023Q2
91
32.1
3.38
0.48
0.70
2.20
2.90
0.2%
2023Q1
90
32.5
3.36
0.49
0.75
2.12
2.84
0.0%
2022Q4
92
33.1
3.14
0.45
0.78
1.91
2.70
0.0%
2022Q3
92
32.8
3.94
0.62
0.93
2.39
3.54
0.0%
2022Q2
91
32.8
4.34
0.74
1.07
2.52
3.67
0.1%
2022Q1
90
30.4
4.27
0.95
0.93
2.39
3.94
3.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 10E × 4F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-20
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-04-17
2025-03-20
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-04-17
2025-03-20
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-02-28
2025-03-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-04-17
2021-08-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0680
Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional.
F
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2021-10-22
2021-08-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-10-22
2019-09-20
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2019-10-18
2019-09-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-10-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NEW AHC HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
72%
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COEUR DALENE RP SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
COEUR DALENE RP SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FISHER, CURTIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
FISHER, CURTIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
LHMSH LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEZA, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
NEW AHC HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
OXNAM, NATHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE BRYAN MILLER UTAH DYNASTY TRUST DATED APRIL 22, 2014
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE G&H MILLER UTAH TRUST DATED FEBRUARY 26, 2019
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADVANCED HEALTH CARE - LARRY H MILLER CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN GAIL MILLER IRREV TR FBO ZANE MILLER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE KAREN GAIL MILLER IRREVOCABLE TRUST FOR THE BENEFIT OF KAREN R. WI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE KAREN GAIL MILLER IRREVOCABLE TRUST FOR THE BENEFIT OF ROGER L. MI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE KAREN GAIL MILLER IRREVOCABLE TRUST FOR THE BENEFIT OF STEPHEN F.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COEUR DALENE RP SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
COEUR DALENE RP SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CURTIS FISHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CURTIS FISHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MEZA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN OXNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$901,576
—
$197
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$858,280
$488,017
$175
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$932,283
$514,327
$-3,031
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$990,326
$518,641
$-11,616
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,451,334
$902,700
$5,813
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 16055
acs median gross
0
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
0
$1,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
1
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
1
$1,302
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
2
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
2
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
3
$1,828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
3
$2,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
4
$2,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
4
$2,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
5
$1,959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
acs median gross
$1,492
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
acs recent mover gross
$1,772
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
0
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
1
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
2
$1,349
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
3
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
4
$1,617
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
5
$2,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs median gross
$1,348
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83814
acs recent mover gross
$1,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 83814
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 110
1
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 90
1
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
safmr
1
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 110
2
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 90
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
safmr
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 110
3
$2,354
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 90
3
$1,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
safmr
3
$2,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 110
4
$2,838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
payment standard 90
4
$2,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83814
safmr
4
$2,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.