Reads as: riskier than 87.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.27
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.32
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.25
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
118.3
3.27
0.35
1.18
1.75
3.32
0.0%
2025Q3
92
92.1
3.43
0.44
1.17
1.82
3.43
6.0%
2025Q2
91
69.9
3.58
0.62
1.25
1.71
3.44
0.0%
2025Q1
90
75.5
4.04
0.69
1.24
2.11
3.87
0.4%
2024Q4
92
76.5
4.31
0.72
1.04
2.56
4.38
0.2%
2024Q3
92
92.9
3.81
0.63
1.00
2.18
3.62
0.0%
2024Q2
91
98.1
3.72
0.60
1.31
1.81
3.58
3.1%
2024Q1
91
117.0
3.62
0.47
1.29
1.85
3.33
2.6%
2023Q4
92
109.7
3.38
0.61
0.96
1.81
3.12
1.7%
2023Q3
92
107.6
3.41
0.61
0.83
1.98
3.27
0.5%
2023Q2
91
127.8
3.36
0.52
0.98
1.86
3.27
1.2%
2023Q1
90
125.7
3.41
0.47
1.07
1.87
3.39
0.5%
2022Q4
92
115.8
3.38
0.58
1.01
1.79
3.28
0.6%
2022Q3
92
119.1
3.33
0.55
1.01
1.78
3.23
1.2%
2022Q2
91
122.0
3.22
0.40
1.13
1.69
3.11
5.9%
2022Q1
90
114.0
3.24
0.55
0.96
1.73
3.26
11.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
D
2026-01-19
2026-01-14
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-01-19
2026-01-14
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-01-19
2025-12-08
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-12-09
2025-12-03
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
E
2025-12-06
2025-12-03
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-12-06
2025-12-03
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-06
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-11-26
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-11-26
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-11-26
2025-11-25
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-11-26
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-08-13
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
E
2025-08-13
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
E
2025-05-10
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2025-05-10
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-05-10
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-02-21
2025-02-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-02-21
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-02-21
2024-06-06
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-06-07
2024-05-29
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-05-30
2023-12-21
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2024-01-15
2023-12-21
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-01-15
2023-12-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-01-15
2023-12-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-01-15
2023-12-21
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-01-15
2023-06-28
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-07-19
2022-10-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-10-15
2022-10-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-10-13
2022-10-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-10-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MUSTANG SNF HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
LMOF V MUSTANG AIV LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
JAVELIN GROUP FUNDING I, LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
ALLEN, HENRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
EDEN, KEVIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
GARCIA, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
LCS HOLDING COMPANY, LLC
—
—
2024-06-30
current
tx_hhsc_directory
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
—
—
2024-06-30
current
tx_hhsc_directory
NAUL, ALAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
SIGNATURE POINTE PROPCO LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
VILLAGE SENIOR CARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
KEVIN EDEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN NAUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HENRY ALLEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER GARCIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48113
acs median gross
0
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
0
$1,582
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
1
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
1
$1,648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
2
$1,931
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
4
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
5
$2,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs median gross
0
$1,228
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs median gross
1
$1,348
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs median gross
2
$1,751
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs median gross
3
$2,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs median gross
$1,484
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75254
acs recent mover gross
$1,535
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75254
payment standard 110
0
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 90
0
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
safmr
0
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 110
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 90
1
$1,656
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
safmr
1
$1,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 110
2
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 90
2
$1,944
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
safmr
2
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 110
3
$2,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 90
3
$2,448
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
safmr
3
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 110
4
$3,806
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
payment standard 90
4
$3,114
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75254
safmr
4
$3,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.