Reads as: riskier than 34.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CIBC BANK USA
155 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
STRAUSS JONATHAN
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
LOWDEN THOMAS
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
PINNACLE HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MORRIS DANIEL
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.38
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.67
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.22
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.44
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
57.8
3.38
0.67
0.90
1.80
3.22
6.2%
2025Q3
92
58.2
3.37
0.64
0.90
1.83
3.23
7.7%
2025Q2
91
58.6
3.43
0.65
0.86
1.92
3.27
7.5%
2025Q1
90
57.8
3.40
0.66
0.80
1.95
3.24
8.7%
2024Q4
92
57.4
3.36
0.81
0.73
1.83
3.31
3.6%
2024Q3
92
55.3
3.64
0.92
0.69
2.02
3.55
8.5%
2024Q2
91
55.8
3.38
0.86
0.71
1.81
3.31
5.1%
2024Q1
91
57.7
3.29
0.71
0.82
1.75
3.21
12.8%
2023Q4
92
58.6
3.23
0.72
0.77
1.74
3.13
5.3%
2023Q3
92
54.9
3.65
0.81
0.97
1.87
3.47
32.0%
2023Q2
91
52.9
3.53
0.66
1.15
1.73
3.19
39.7%
2023Q1
90
55.6
3.07
0.57
0.89
1.61
3.00
40.9%
2022Q4
92
54.5
2.66
0.72
0.65
1.29
2.52
27.3%
2022Q3
92
53.0
3.02
0.73
0.78
1.51
2.90
44.3%
2022Q2
91
56.3
2.69
0.67
0.77
1.25
2.58
32.6%
2022Q1
90
53.3
2.74
0.72
0.90
1.11
2.60
34.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-02-03
2025-08-29
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-10-04
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-07-19
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-07-19
2024-06-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-07-12
2024-06-07
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-07-12
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-01-12
2023-07-21
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-08-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MAYBROOK-C SILVER OAKS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MAYBROOK-C SILVER OAKS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-11-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CIBC BANK USA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
DESMET, LYNN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
KADIMA HEALTHCARE GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOWDEN, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAYLOR, DIEDRE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PINNACLE HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROMEO, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STOCKHAUSEN, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUSS, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
THIMONS, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TINKER, SONYA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAYBROOK-C SILVER OAKS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
MAYBROOK-C SILVER OAKS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
MAYBROOK-C SILVER OAKS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
DANIEL MORRIS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN STRAUSS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID THIMONS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIEDRE NAYLOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES STOCKHAUSEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN DESMET
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE ROMEO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SONYA TINKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS LOWDEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-10-31
$223,858
$130,000
—
—
—
4
propco
2024-06-30
$764,570
$485,062
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-06-30
$288,416
$1
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-06-30
$1
$1
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-06-30
$358,971
$358,971
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42073
acs median gross
0
$391
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
fmr
0
$705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42073
acs median gross
1
$620
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
fmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42073
acs median gross
2
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
fmr
2
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42073
acs median gross
3
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
fmr
3
$1,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42073
acs median gross
4
$1,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
fmr
4
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42073
acs median gross
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42073
acs recent mover gross
$801
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
0
$380
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
1
$607
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
2
$764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
3
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
4
$1,089
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
5
$513
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs median gross
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16101
acs recent mover gross
$747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 16101
payment standard 110
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 90
0
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
safmr
0
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 110
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 90
3
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
safmr
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 110
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
payment standard 90
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16101
safmr
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.