202 SOUTH WEST STREET, CONCORDIA, MO 64020 · CCN 265765
Composite
81.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
113
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 81.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.14
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.16
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.03
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.19
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
71.1
2.14
0.16
0.65
1.33
2.03
2.2%
2025Q3
92
70.3
2.03
0.18
0.68
1.16
2.10
2.0%
2025Q2
91
70.7
2.00
0.23
0.68
1.09
2.01
2.0%
2025Q1
90
71.1
1.36
0.13
0.01
1.22
1.35
1.8%
2024Q4
92
67.8
2.05
0.16
0.81
1.07
1.90
6.6%
2024Q3
92
66.0
2.62
0.14
0.74
1.74
2.42
3.4%
2024Q2
91
62.6
2.70
0.16
0.89
1.66
2.54
23.6%
2024Q1
91
51.8
2.40
0.20
0.71
1.48
2.32
9.9%
2023Q4
92
45.0
2.69
0.32
0.91
1.45
2.57
13.6%
2023Q3
92
48.8
3.49
0.17
1.24
2.09
3.14
24.1%
2023Q2
91
59.5
4.78
2.08
1.13
1.58
4.04
1.2%
2023Q1
90
62.6
4.08
0.94
1.31
1.83
3.66
2.8%
2022Q4
92
63.6
4.31
0.90
1.38
2.03
3.87
7.9%
2022Q3
92
57.3
4.32
1.00
1.46
1.85
3.93
0.0%
2022Q2
91
56.4
4.54
1.17
1.54
1.83
3.91
0.0%
2022Q1
90
55.7
4.85
1.14
1.71
2.00
4.45
11.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-09
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-09
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-05-20
2026-04-09
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2026-05-20
2025-08-01
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0728
Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-09-15
2025-08-01
Health
F0790
Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.
D
2025-09-15
2024-07-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-06-04
2023-09-28
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
E
2023-11-14
2023-09-28
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-14
2023-09-28
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-11-14
2023-09-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-11-14
2022-04-13
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0885
Report COVID19 data to residents and families.
F
2022-05-28
2022-04-13
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
D
2022-05-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
9
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FARRELL, KRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
HABIBULLAH, AYAAZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MALIK, OMER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MALIK, SHAFIQ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OMER MALIK
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAFIQ MALIK
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AYAAZ HABIBULLAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINE FARRELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,037,991
—
—
$853,325
$22,270
19
—
2023-12-31
$520,286
—
—
$405,893
$50,463
19
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29107
fmr
0
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29107
acs median gross
1
$601
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
fmr
1
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29107
acs median gross
2
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
fmr
2
$1,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29107
acs median gross
3
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
fmr
3
$1,769
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29107
acs median gross
4
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
fmr
4
$2,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29107
acs median gross
5
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
acs median gross
$928
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29107
acs recent mover gross
$1,149
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64020
acs median gross
1
$708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64020
acs median gross
2
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64020
acs median gross
3
$1,045
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64020
acs median gross
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64020
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 110
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 90
3
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
safmr
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 110
4
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
payment standard 90
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64020
safmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.