Composite
49.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 86.3 | 83.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.92 | in index |
| financial risk | 51.3 | 46.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.84 | in index |
| billing conduct | 41.4 | 36.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.55 | in index |
| staffing risk | 18.7 | 18.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.60 | in index |
| chow risk | 30.2 | 29.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.48 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 36.0 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 32.9 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.3 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 83.4 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 18.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 87.9 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.4 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 83.3 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 83.3 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 18.8 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 18.8 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.30 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.95 | -0.18 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 12.00 | -0.80 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.95 | -0.31 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.21 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.31 | -0.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.95 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.66 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.49 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.13 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 161.5 | 3.95 | 0.66 | 0.42 | 2.88 | 3.49 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 165.0 | 3.92 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 2.83 | 3.44 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 159.2 | 4.04 | 0.71 | 0.47 | 2.86 | 3.60 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 155.4 | 4.18 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 2.91 | 3.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 154.3 | 3.96 | 0.81 | 0.45 | 2.69 | 3.61 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 151.6 | 4.00 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 2.68 | 3.58 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 150.5 | 4.15 | 0.92 | 0.49 | 2.74 | 3.74 | 0.4% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 148.3 | 4.32 | 0.95 | 0.52 | 2.85 | 3.95 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 150.3 | 4.25 | 0.85 | 0.43 | 2.97 | 3.75 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 165.1 | 3.89 | 0.70 | 0.38 | 2.81 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 164.9 | 4.14 | 0.70 | 0.48 | 2.96 | 3.57 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 165.5 | 4.12 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 3.02 | 3.69 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 161.2 | 4.07 | 0.59 | 0.44 | 3.04 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 157.0 | 4.41 | 0.63 | 0.46 | 3.32 | 3.60 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 142.7 | 4.32 | 0.73 | 0.44 | 3.15 | 3.41 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 127.6 | 4.35 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 3.04 | 3.32 | 0.3% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-19 | Fine | $68,445 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-19 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-04-01 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2025-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-12-29 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-02-25 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-04-07 |
| 2024-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-09-03 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| 2023-12-19 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-01-26 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COUNTY OF LAPEER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| BAKER, SHEA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-09-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WEBER, MARY SUE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHEA BAKER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2020-09-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARY SUE WEBER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 0 | $964 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | fmr | 0 | $1,009 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 1 | $742 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | fmr | 1 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | fmr | 2 | $1,411 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,306 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | fmr | 3 | $1,724 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,328 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | fmr | 4 | $1,868 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,652 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26087 | acs median gross | $988 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26087 | acs recent mover gross | $1,362 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | 0 | $955 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | 1 | $840 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,107 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,296 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,306 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48446 | acs median gross | $1,008 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48446 | acs recent mover gross | $1,401 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $957 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | safmr | 0 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | safmr | 1 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | safmr | 2 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | safmr | 3 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,782 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,458 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48446 | safmr | 4 | $1,620 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |