258 PINE TREE DRIVE, BIGFORK, MN 56628 · CCN 245529
Composite
30.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
40
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 30.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.89
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.13
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.99
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.85
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
21.5
2.89
1.13
0.36
1.40
2.99
5.8%
2025Q3
92
22.2
3.01
1.14
0.15
1.72
2.67
0.0%
2025Q2
91
20.1
4.10
1.29
0.29
2.52
3.91
0.0%
2025Q1
90
19.3
3.90
1.47
0.30
2.14
3.84
0.0%
2024Q4
92
18.4
4.13
1.57
0.31
2.25
4.16
0.0%
2024Q3
92
19.1
4.18
1.66
0.21
2.31
3.95
0.0%
2024Q2
91
17.6
4.13
1.52
0.01
2.60
3.94
0.0%
2024Q1
91
17.4
3.57
1.40
0.00
2.17
3.46
0.0%
2023Q4
92
18.3
3.14
1.51
0.09
1.55
3.17
7.6%
2023Q3
92
18.3
3.52
1.01
0.31
2.20
3.46
21.6%
2023Q2
91
16.4
3.63
1.21
0.37
2.05
3.78
19.5%
2023Q1
90
18.5
2.82
1.11
0.29
1.41
2.84
0.0%
2022Q4
92
18.8
3.23
1.21
0.32
1.70
3.13
0.2%
2022Q3
92
18.4
3.55
1.27
0.20
2.08
3.38
10.8%
2022Q2
91
21.0
2.89
1.08
0.07
1.74
2.95
2.6%
2022Q1
90
22.1
2.78
0.97
0.14
1.67
2.86
3.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
C × 1D × 9E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-06
2025-12-11
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2026-01-06
2025-11-14
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2026-01-29
2024-10-23
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-12-04
2024-10-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-12-04
2024-10-23
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-12-04
2024-10-23
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-12-04
2024-10-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-04
2023-11-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-19
2023-11-15
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2023-12-19
2023-06-23
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-07-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ANDERSON, DARLA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, DARLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, JESSICA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ANSELMO, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOK, CLINTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOK, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
FREDRICKSON, KURT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-28
current
pecos_ownership
GILBERTSON, CAROL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEINECKE, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOUGH, NATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
HOUGH, NATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KITTRIDGE, TERESA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
LAMONT, TOM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
MCKELLAR, PAULA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-11
current
pecos_ownership
NIEMALA, AMANDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
NORTHERN ITASCA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
RAHIER, GORDON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALMELA, LARRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
SCRIVNER, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEDGWICK, SALLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-10-03
current
pecos_ownership
SURSELY, DAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATSON, HEIDI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2011-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
AMANDA NIEMALA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL GILBERTSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLINTON COOK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAN SURSELY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL HEINECKE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARLA ANDERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARLA ANDERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-11-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GORDON RAHIER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY ANSELMO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY COOK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEIDI WATSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2011-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY SCRIVNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA ANDERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KURT FREDRICKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY SALMELA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN HOUGH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN HOUGH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAULA MCKELLAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SALLY SEDGWICK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA KITTRIDGE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM LAMONT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27061
acs median gross
0
$677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
0
$754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
1
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
2
$1,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
2
$1,074
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
3
$1,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
3
$1,401
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
4
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
fmr
4
$1,516
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27061
acs median gross
5
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
acs median gross
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27061
acs recent mover gross
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56628
acs median gross
1
$981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56628
acs median gross
2
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56628
acs median gross
3
$339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56628
acs median gross
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56628
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 110
1
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 90
1
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
safmr
1
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 110
2
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 90
2
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
safmr
2
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 110
3
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 90
3
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
safmr
3
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 110
4
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
payment standard 90
4
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56628
safmr
4
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.