Reads as: riskier than 22.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
SMITHERS JEFFREY
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.13
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.90
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
131.8
3.13
0.34
0.70
2.10
2.90
0.0%
2025Q3
92
132.5
3.07
0.34
0.69
2.04
2.85
0.0%
2025Q2
91
128.1
3.17
0.29
0.74
2.14
2.98
0.0%
2025Q1
90
129.2
3.26
0.28
0.72
2.26
3.03
0.0%
2024Q4
92
128.3
3.37
0.27
0.71
2.38
3.14
0.0%
2024Q3
92
128.8
3.37
0.29
0.72
2.36
3.16
0.0%
2024Q2
91
124.8
3.31
0.36
0.67
2.29
3.06
0.0%
2024Q1
91
127.8
3.21
0.37
0.70
2.14
2.98
0.0%
2023Q4
92
126.4
3.32
0.40
0.65
2.27
3.11
0.0%
2023Q3
92
129.9
3.07
0.34
0.62
2.11
2.86
0.0%
2023Q2
91
128.8
3.11
0.26
0.76
2.09
2.88
0.0%
2023Q1
90
123.9
3.15
0.16
0.86
2.13
2.92
0.0%
2022Q4
92
122.3
3.27
0.23
0.89
2.15
3.02
0.0%
2022Q3
92
118.8
3.24
0.19
0.86
2.19
2.98
1.5%
2022Q2
91
123.4
3.17
0.23
0.77
2.17
2.90
0.0%
2022Q1
90
122.9
2.88
0.30
0.70
1.88
2.72
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-06-15
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-07-15
2023-06-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-07-15
2023-06-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-15
2021-11-12
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2021-12-12
2021-11-12
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2021-12-12
2021-11-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-12-12
2021-11-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2021-12-12
2021-11-12
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2021-12-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NATIONAL HEALTH CORP LEVERAGED EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
CROTTS, JEANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
CROTTS, JEANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUBOSE, MACDONALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
DUBOSE, MACDONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORHOUSE, BRADLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, JEFFREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
TENNESSEE HEALTHCARE ADVISORS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
TENNESSEE HEALTHCARE ADVISORS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY MOORHOUSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANIE CROTTS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANIE CROTTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-09-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MACDONALD DUBOSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MACDONALD DUBOSE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,299,181
—
$648,699
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$273,240
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$1,149,571
—
$9,954
$818,311
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,265,174
—
$503,850
$761,324
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,173,585
—
$339,025
$797,498
$23,014
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45085
acs median gross
0
$435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
fmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45085
acs median gross
1
$645
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
fmr
1
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45085
acs median gross
2
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
fmr
2
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45085
acs median gross
3
$1,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
fmr
3
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45085
acs median gross
4
$1,533
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
fmr
4
$1,871
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45085
acs median gross
5
$1,645
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
acs median gross
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45085
acs recent mover gross
$1,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
0
$293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
1
$689
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
2
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
3
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
4
$1,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs median gross
$983
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29150
acs recent mover gross
$1,228
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29150
payment standard 110
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 90
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
safmr
0
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 110
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 90
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
safmr
1
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 110
2
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 90
2
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
safmr
2
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 110
4
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
payment standard 90
4
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29150
safmr
4
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.