Reads as: riskier than 52.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT INC
28 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.55
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.22
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.68
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
100.3
3.55
0.52
0.80
2.22
3.22
4.4%
2025Q3
92
102.0
3.43
0.48
0.78
2.16
3.11
8.1%
2025Q2
91
101.3
3.52
0.46
0.82
2.23
2.98
10.5%
2025Q1
90
100.2
3.59
0.52
0.81
2.25
2.97
1.5%
2024Q4
92
105.9
3.33
0.51
0.71
2.11
2.98
0.0%
2024Q3
92
99.8
3.58
0.50
0.76
2.32
3.16
0.0%
2024Q2
91
95.6
3.58
0.43
0.90
2.26
3.14
0.0%
2024Q1
91
102.6
3.21
0.46
0.83
1.92
2.84
0.0%
2023Q4
92
104.6
3.15
0.49
0.76
1.91
2.72
0.0%
2023Q3
92
104.0
3.32
0.50
0.77
2.06
2.96
0.0%
2023Q2
91
104.4
3.31
0.51
0.82
1.98
2.97
0.0%
2023Q1
90
104.8
3.13
0.42
0.82
1.90
2.75
0.1%
2022Q4
92
97.8
3.23
0.38
0.86
1.99
2.90
0.0%
2022Q3
92
98.7
3.15
0.19
0.94
2.03
2.81
0.0%
2022Q2
91
98.7
3.00
0.30
0.83
1.88
2.74
0.0%
2022Q1
90
94.8
3.09
0.31
0.86
1.93
2.86
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-07-25
2025-07-02
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-07-25
2025-07-02
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2025-07-25
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-22
2024-04-13
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
G
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
G
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health · complaint
F0626
Permit a resident to return to the nursing home after hospitalization or therapeutic leave that exceeds bed-hold policy.
G
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
G
2024-05-14
2024-04-13
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-05-14
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
G
2024-05-14
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-05-14
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-04-13
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-04-13
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
G
2024-05-14
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-01-05
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-05-14
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-13
2022-11-10
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2022-12-09
2022-11-10
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2022-12-09
2022-11-10
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2022-12-09
2022-11-10
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2022-12-09
2022-11-10
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2022-12-09
2022-11-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-12-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CHERY, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST 2015 FAMILY TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GHANNAM, WASEEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HSP CAROLINA, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN J NOTERMANN BUSINESS TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
KAAR, SUSAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
KERLEY, STEVEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANGINE, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MELTON, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, BRENDA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
SABRA HEALTH CARE REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN CAROLINA DISBURSEMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN CAROLINA HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
WHITEHEAD, EFREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DONALD MELTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MANGINE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN CHERY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-06-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH HOWE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN KERLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN KAAR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WASEEM GHANNAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM NOTERMANN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$456,670
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$448,129
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$367,762
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$347,977
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$356,739
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37109
acs median gross
0
$909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
fmr
0
$917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37109
acs median gross
1
$936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
fmr
1
$953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37109
acs median gross
2
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
fmr
2
$1,054
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37109
acs median gross
3
$1,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
fmr
3
$1,461
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37109
acs median gross
4
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
fmr
4
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37109
acs median gross
5
$2,536
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
acs median gross
$1,015
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37109
acs recent mover gross
$1,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
0
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
1
$952
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
2
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
3
$1,155
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
4
$1,675
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs median gross
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28092
acs recent mover gross
$1,139
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28092
payment standard 110
0
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 90
0
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
safmr
0
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 110
1
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 90
1
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
safmr
1
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 110
2
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 90
2
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
safmr
2
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28092
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.