200 Wake Robin Drive, Shelburne, VT 05482 · CCN 475056
Composite
0.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
33
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 0.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
DAVISON JOHN
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.15
3.66
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.07
0.54
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.88
3.46
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.25
3.81
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
28.4
5.15
1.07
0.65
3.43
4.88
17.5%
2025Q3
92
27.9
5.23
1.20
0.65
3.37
5.23
12.8%
2025Q2
91
27.5
5.38
0.94
0.87
3.57
5.26
25.9%
2025Q1
90
29.8
5.12
0.86
1.11
3.14
4.89
32.9%
2024Q4
92
26.8
5.29
0.97
0.95
3.36
5.23
0.4%
2024Q3
92
25.8
5.95
1.11
1.20
3.64
5.44
4.0%
2024Q2
91
26.9
5.80
0.92
1.09
3.79
5.58
10.2%
2024Q1
91
26.2
5.49
1.09
0.99
3.40
5.05
15.7%
2023Q4
92
25.1
5.56
1.43
0.75
3.38
5.20
11.6%
2023Q3
92
24.8
6.08
1.47
0.82
3.79
5.79
0.0%
2023Q2
91
24.1
6.03
1.60
0.89
3.54
5.85
1.0%
2023Q1
90
26.4
5.07
1.38
0.89
2.80
4.89
5.2%
2022Q4
92
27.5
5.05
1.56
1.00
2.49
4.84
6.5%
2022Q3
92
29.7
4.99
1.50
0.96
2.53
4.74
5.5%
2022Q2
91
29.3
5.01
1.36
0.65
3.00
4.50
3.8%
2022Q1
90
29.3
4.89
1.12
0.70
3.07
4.75
3.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
2
C × 1D × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-02-10
2023-08-02
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
C
—
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
72
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AREL, BARBARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAAD, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUCKLEY, MEAGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, SARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
CHASE, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
COCINA, SARAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CROUSE, ROGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELDERTON, EMILY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-14
current
pecos_ownership
ELDERTON, EMILY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
FILONOW, HEATHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FILONOW, HEATHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
HAYS, KATHERINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-09
current
pecos_ownership
ILIFF, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-11-06
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, MEREDITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELSEN, MARYSUE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
KIEFER, ANGELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
LATREILLE, TAMMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
LENES, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONGE, ANDREA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
LORENZINI, TARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-31
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAITLAND, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAYNARD, SASHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERRITT, SARAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITTELSTADT, ALEXIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
MONTE, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'BRIEN, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-03-30
current
pecos_ownership
O'BRIEN, TERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-09-06
current
pecos_ownership
PARKER, LESLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
POWELL, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
SCHONBERG, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STANDRIDGE, ALICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
TISCHLER, SARAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
VINCENT, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, BRIGETTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXIS MITTELSTADT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALICIA STANDRIDGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA LONGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGELA KIEFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA AREL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIGETTE WHITE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER CHASE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMILY ELDERTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMILY ELDERTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEATHER FILONOW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEATHER FILONOW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES MADISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER POWELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN LENES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN DAVIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MAITLAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN VINCENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE HAYS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE PARKER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-02-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARYSUE KELSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEAGAN BUCKLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEREDITH JONES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MONTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL O'BRIEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-03-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER CROUSE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-08-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH COCINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH MERRITT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH TISCHLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SASHA MAYNARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN BAAD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SCHONBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMMY LATREILLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-10-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TARA LORENZINI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERI O'BRIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-09-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM ILIFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 50007
acs median gross
0
$1,244
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
1
$1,427
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
2
$1,727
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
3
$2,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
4
$2,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
5
$2,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs median gross
$1,646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 50007
acs recent mover gross
$1,807
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 05482
acs median gross
1
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 05482
acs median gross
2
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 05482
acs median gross
3
$2,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 05482
acs median gross
$1,442
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 05482
acs recent mover gross
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 05482
payment standard 110
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 90
0
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
safmr
0
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 110
1
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 90
1
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
safmr
1
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 110
2
$2,156
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 90
2
$1,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
safmr
2
$1,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 110
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 90
3
$2,259
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
safmr
3
$2,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 110
4
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
payment standard 90
4
$2,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 05482
safmr
4
$2,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.