Composite
60.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 84.5 | 71.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.50 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 59.9 | 51.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.82 | in index |
| billing conduct | 52.9 | 40.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.21 | in index |
| chow risk | 52.1 | 50.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.01 | in index |
| staffing risk | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 0.87 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.6 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 75.6 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 71.3 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 51.1 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 97.3 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 77.3 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 76.5 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 69.7 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 51.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.90 | -0.37 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.22 | +0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.90 | -0.71 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.22 | -0.67 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.90 | 3.60 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.71 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.73 | 3.49 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.96 | 3.65 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 40.7 | 4.90 | 0.71 | 1.29 | 2.90 | 4.73 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 41.4 | 4.90 | 0.61 | 1.31 | 2.98 | 4.67 | 0.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 42.0 | 5.01 | 0.62 | 1.36 | 3.03 | 4.96 | 0.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 39.3 | 5.12 | 0.49 | 1.48 | 3.15 | 5.17 | 0.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 41.2 | 4.96 | 0.39 | 1.47 | 3.10 | 4.98 | 1.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 39.5 | 5.03 | 0.45 | 1.46 | 3.12 | 4.99 | 6.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 39.1 | 5.21 | 0.53 | 1.37 | 3.31 | 5.34 | 27.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 39.5 | 4.72 | 0.64 | 0.98 | 3.11 | 4.55 | 34.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 39.9 | 4.84 | 0.95 | 0.61 | 3.28 | 4.62 | 31.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 40.4 | 4.75 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 3.02 | 4.50 | 40.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 39.4 | 4.56 | 0.72 | 1.01 | 2.83 | 4.18 | 26.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 39.5 | 4.62 | 0.72 | 1.06 | 2.84 | 4.50 | 14.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 39.8 | 4.62 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 2.95 | 4.83 | 1.7% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 37.6 | 4.97 | 1.06 | 0.82 | 3.09 | 5.08 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 38.9 | 4.95 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 3.01 | 4.91 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 35.8 | 5.26 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 3.37 | 5.08 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-05-13 |
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-05-13 |
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-05-13 |
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2026-05-13 |
| 2026-01-21 | Health · complaint | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-21 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2026-01-23 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-06-10 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-07-10 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0694 | Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-26 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-02-07 |
| 2025-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-02-07 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-11-26 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-11-26 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-02-28 | Health · complaint | F0626 | Permit a resident to return to the nursing home after hospitalization or therapeutic leave that exceeds bed-hold policy. | D | 2024-03-30 |
| 2024-02-28 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2024-03-30 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | C | 2022-11-17 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-04-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GORMAN, JOSEPH | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-07-11 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARSHFIELD, NICHOLAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-04-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JANTZEN, JESSE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-04-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| POPE, ERIN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-07-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STEMM, CHRISTY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHRISTY STEMM | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERIN POPE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-07-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JESSE JANTZEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-04-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOSEPH GORMAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-07-11 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS HARSHFIELD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-04-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-28 | Complete Care at Hales Corners | — | — | — | 62 | HALES CORNERS CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-05-28 | Complete Care at Care Age | — | — | — | 110 | CARE AGE OF BROOKFIELD CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-04-24 | Edenbrook Sheboygan | — | — | — | 121 | SHEBOYGAN SNF OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | Complete Care at Jefferson Meadows LLC | — | — | — | 102 | ST CLARE CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-02-28 | Complete Care at Christian Home LLC | — | — | — | 50 | CHRISTIAN HOME CARE AND REHAB CENTER LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | COLONIAL HEALTH SERVICES | — | — | — | 70 | NSH COLBY LLC |
| 2024-12-14 | CAREVIEW HEALTH AND REHAB OF MINOCQUA | — | — | — | 72 | CAREVIEW HEALTH AND REHAB OF MINOCQUA, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | Wood Aven Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 82 | RIVER HAWK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | Samaritan Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 131 | SAMARITAN NURSING AND REHAB LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | DOVE HEALTHCARE - SPOONER | — | — | — | 50 | SPOONER REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER LLC |
| 2024-04-16 | MIDDLE RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | MIDDLE RIVER REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-01-25 | Serenity Spring Senior Living at Scandia Village | — | — | — | 50 | SISTER BAY SNF OPCO, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 0 | $883 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | fmr | 0 | $1,027 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 1 | $948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | fmr | 1 | $1,119 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,133 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | fmr | 2 | $1,338 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,486 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | fmr | 3 | $1,648 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,794 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | fmr | 4 | $1,784 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,202 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 55089 | acs median gross | $1,154 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 55089 | acs recent mover gross | $1,286 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 53092 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,014 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53092 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,791 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53092 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,477 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 53092 | acs median gross | $1,816 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 53092 | acs recent mover gross | $1,448 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | safmr | 0 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,848 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,512 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | safmr | 1 | $1,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,211 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,809 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | safmr | 2 | $2,010 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,728 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | safmr | 3 | $2,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,948 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,412 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 53092 | safmr | 4 | $2,680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |