41505 CARLOTTA DRIVE, PALM DESERT, CA 92211 · CCN 555226
Composite
28.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
59
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 28.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MOSS ADAMS LLP
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
WELLS FARGO BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.33
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.05
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.44
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
41.1
4.33
0.29
1.45
2.58
4.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
41.8
4.24
0.30
1.35
2.58
4.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
37.2
4.37
0.26
1.50
2.61
4.19
0.2%
2025Q1
90
38.3
4.37
0.29
1.46
2.62
4.26
0.1%
2024Q4
92
40.1
4.28
0.31
1.41
2.56
4.17
0.2%
2024Q3
92
40.9
4.15
0.26
1.38
2.50
3.93
1.2%
2024Q2
91
37.1
4.38
0.31
1.54
2.54
4.13
2.4%
2024Q1
91
40.1
4.16
0.20
1.53
2.42
4.07
0.9%
2023Q4
92
41.5
4.07
0.32
1.32
2.43
3.78
0.6%
2023Q3
92
41.4
3.99
0.32
1.42
2.24
3.73
0.1%
2023Q2
91
43.3
3.45
0.21
1.23
2.01
3.19
11.3%
2023Q1
90
29.0
4.31
0.53
1.55
2.23
3.65
4.0%
2022Q4
92
32.1
3.86
0.36
1.39
2.12
3.15
8.9%
2022Q3
92
29.3
4.31
0.46
1.49
2.37
3.80
14.0%
2022Q2
91
29.8
4.55
0.65
1.55
2.35
3.81
16.9%
2022Q1
90
28.2
4.42
0.33
1.73
2.36
3.59
20.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 20E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-28
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-16
2025-12-15
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-05
2025-08-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-11
2025-06-06
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-06-27
2025-06-06
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-06-27
2025-06-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-06-27
2025-06-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-06-27
2025-06-06
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2025-06-27
2025-06-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-06-27
2025-05-15
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-06
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-07-05
2024-06-18
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-06-21
2024-06-18
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-02
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-02
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-05-23
2024-01-19
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-19
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-02-01
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2023-08-18
2023-02-03
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2023-03-02
2023-02-03
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-03-02
2023-02-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-03-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APDC, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ASPEN HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRADSHAW, JEFFREY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRADSHAW, PETER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRADY, VERN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
CASE, RYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
CASLMON, TIMOTHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
EAST WEST BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ELSNER, ERIC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
EPC TREVI LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARIBAY, MERCEDES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
GUERRA, MONICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
JURADO, FRANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRKWOOD, JARED
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
MOSS ADAMS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ORGILL, CRAIG
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
PARTI, RAJESH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
PARTI, SHRUTY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
PAXMAN, MARCUS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
THAKUR, CHAHAT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, STEPHEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
WELLS FARGO BANK, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACARANDA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN THOMPSON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$636,626
—
$569,512
$6,652
$60,462
1
—
2023-12-31
$323,648
—
$323,648
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06065
acs median gross
0
$1,372
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
fmr
0
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065
acs median gross
1
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
fmr
1
$1,777
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065
acs median gross
2
$1,810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
fmr
2
$2,201
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065
acs median gross
3
$2,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
fmr
3
$2,912
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065
acs median gross
4
$2,666
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
fmr
4
$3,514
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06065
acs median gross
5
$3,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
acs median gross
$1,901
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06065
acs recent mover gross
$2,268
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
0
$1,705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
1
$1,253
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
2
$2,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
3
$2,967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
4
$3,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs median gross
$1,877
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 92211
acs recent mover gross
$2,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 92211
payment standard 110
0
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 90
0
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
safmr
0
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 110
1
$2,068
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 90
1
$1,692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
safmr
1
$1,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 110
2
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 90
2
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
safmr
2
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 110
3
$3,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 90
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
safmr
3
$3,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 110
4
$4,092
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
payment standard 90
4
$3,348
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 92211
safmr
4
$3,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.