Composite
55.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 59.7 | 43.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.78 | in index |
| financial risk | 51.6 | 46.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.91 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 48.9 | 37.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.28 | in index |
| chow risk | 85.5 | 58.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.87 | in index |
| staffing risk | 17.8 | 17.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.42 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 43.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 29.9 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 86.6 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 37.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 17.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 97.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 77.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.1 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.0 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.66 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | +0.30 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.98 | -0.19 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.74 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | -0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.98 | -0.32 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.98 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.59 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.14 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 92.5 | 3.98 | 0.46 | 1.31 | 2.21 | 3.59 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 92.6 | 4.08 | 0.38 | 1.39 | 2.31 | 3.73 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 93.0 | 4.22 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 2.12 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 93.3 | 4.18 | 0.41 | 1.59 | 2.18 | 3.81 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 93.4 | 3.89 | 0.35 | 1.62 | 1.92 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 84.3 | 3.55 | 0.28 | 1.58 | 1.69 | 3.42 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 88.1 | 3.43 | 0.38 | 1.51 | 1.53 | 3.20 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 88.7 | 3.31 | 0.42 | 1.35 | 1.54 | 3.05 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 86.2 | 3.44 | 0.56 | 1.32 | 1.55 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 88.1 | 3.42 | 0.58 | 1.24 | 1.60 | 3.27 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 85.1 | 3.33 | 0.51 | 1.27 | 1.54 | 3.11 | 1.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 79.2 | 3.45 | 0.69 | 1.31 | 1.45 | 3.06 | 1.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 76.4 | 3.47 | 0.53 | 1.30 | 1.65 | 3.08 | 9.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 75.0 | 3.19 | 0.51 | 1.45 | 1.24 | 2.91 | 29.2% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 65.1 | 3.10 | 0.52 | 1.48 | 1.11 | 2.97 | 51.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 68.7 | 2.98 | 0.45 | 1.35 | 1.18 | 2.80 | 54.1% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-03-30 |
| 2026-03-10 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-03-30 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-06-05 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-06-05 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-05 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2025-06-05 |
| 2025-04-15 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-03-17 |
| 2025-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-03-20 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-02-06 |
| 2024-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-30 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0635 | Provide doctor's orders for the resident's immediate care at the time the resident was admitted. | D | 2023-10-02 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2023-10-02 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-06-25 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0839 | Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws. | E | 2024-03-11 |
| 2023-08-16 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2023-08-29 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2023-07-10 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E2G, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2011-01-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SENIOR CARE EQUITIES 18 LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2012-12-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WRONSKI, FRANK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2011-01-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CLARKSTON REAL ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CLARKSTON REAL ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| KEEBAUGH, SCOTT | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-04-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2018-10-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANGSTER, TODD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT KEEBAUGH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2021-04-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CLARKSTON REAL ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 33% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CLARKSTON REAL ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 33% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| FRANK WRONSKI | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2011-01-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES BRANSCUM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2012-12-04 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEO EISENBERG | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 30% | 2011-01-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL PERRY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 5% | 2019-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CLARKSTON REAL ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| TODD SANGSTER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,043 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 0 | $1,009 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,122 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 1 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,466 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 2 | $1,411 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,728 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 3 | $1,724 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,152 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | fmr | 4 | $1,868 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26125 | acs median gross | $1,376 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26125 | acs recent mover gross | $1,492 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48348 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,129 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48348 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,372 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48348 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,198 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48348 | acs median gross | $1,204 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48348 | acs recent mover gross | $1,213 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | safmr | 0 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | safmr | 1 | $1,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,606 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,314 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | safmr | 2 | $1,460 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | safmr | 3 | $1,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,123 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48348 | safmr | 4 | $1,930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |