10570 BERGTOLD ROAD, CLARENCE, NY 14031 · CCN 335112
Composite
26.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
240
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 26.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.64
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.36
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.74
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
204.3
3.64
0.29
1.17
2.18
3.36
0.0%
2025Q3
92
201.2
3.78
0.29
1.26
2.23
3.44
0.0%
2025Q2
91
199.7
3.79
0.31
1.21
2.27
3.50
0.0%
2025Q1
90
199.5
3.82
0.33
1.29
2.20
3.66
0.0%
2024Q4
92
190.8
4.12
0.35
1.52
2.25
3.93
0.0%
2024Q3
92
180.5
4.12
0.25
1.59
2.28
4.00
0.0%
2024Q2
91
188.6
4.02
0.10
1.46
2.47
3.84
0.0%
2024Q1
91
181.4
3.74
0.11
1.33
2.30
3.62
0.0%
2023Q4
92
180.8
3.63
0.11
1.29
2.22
3.54
0.0%
2023Q3
92
203.0
3.56
0.15
1.35
2.06
3.43
2.9%
2023Q2
91
197.4
3.65
0.18
1.36
2.11
3.48
7.9%
2023Q1
90
189.1
3.48
0.20
1.17
2.11
3.38
5.8%
2022Q4
92
174.0
3.67
0.30
1.07
2.31
3.62
2.6%
2022Q3
92
163.7
3.73
0.32
1.06
2.35
3.59
4.1%
2022Q2
91
174.0
3.37
0.26
0.96
2.16
3.25
3.2%
2022Q1
90
172.0
3.30
0.25
1.00
2.05
3.24
1.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
B × 2D × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-16
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
B
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
F
2026-03-13
2026-01-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-13
2024-01-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
B
2024-03-01
2024-01-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-03-01
2024-01-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-03-01
2024-01-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-01
2024-01-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-03-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BUTTERFOSS, KIRSTEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAKKAPPAN, ROOPA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DILLSWORTH, TERESA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
ELLER, CINDY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELMER, PETER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FENTNER, THOMAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FUDYMA, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUGINO, STACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUGINO, STACEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
INGHAM, JAMIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-21
current
pecos_ownership
LIPUMA, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOSI, BARBARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCRAE, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
NASCA, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOE, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOWICKI, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAFFIRE, RICHARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, KENNETH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, KENNETH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIELINSKI, LARRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETER ELMER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA DILLSWORTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2019-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA LOSI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY ELLER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID LIPUMA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID NASCA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID ROGERS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMIE INGHAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER NOWICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN FUDYMA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH THOMAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH THOMAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRSTEN BUTTERFOSS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY ZIELINSKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MCRAE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL NOE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SAFFIRE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROOPA CHAKKAPPAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY GUGINO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY GUGINO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS FENTNER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,141,553
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,317,622
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$1,454,848
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,294,278
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$1,497,873
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36029
acs median gross
0
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
0
$1,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
1
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
1
$1,139
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
2
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
2
$1,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
3
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
4
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
4
$1,869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
5
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
acs median gross
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
acs recent mover gross
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14031
acs median gross
1
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14031
acs median gross
2
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14031
acs median gross
$947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 14031
payment standard 110
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 90
0
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
safmr
0
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 110
1
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 90
1
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
safmr
1
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 110
2
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 90
2
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
safmr
2
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 110
3
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 90
3
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
safmr
3
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 110
4
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
payment standard 90
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14031
safmr
4
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.