Composite
94.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 89.3 | 86.8 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 38.27 | in index |
| staffing risk | 76.2 | 76.2 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 27.21 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 86.8 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 76.2 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 86.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 86.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 2.00 | +0.09 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.63 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.16 | -0.56 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.87 | +0.14 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.87 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.22 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.65 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.96 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 63.5 | 2.87 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 2.01 | 2.65 | 6.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 57.1 | 2.89 | 0.27 | 0.59 | 2.04 | 2.56 | 3.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 54.0 | 2.67 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 1.81 | 2.26 | 3.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 49.5 | 2.69 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 1.83 | 2.35 | 3.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 45.3 | 3.01 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 2.22 | 2.78 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 45.6 | 2.79 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 1.99 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 41.1 | 3.15 | 0.34 | 0.66 | 2.15 | 3.04 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 44.2 | 2.95 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 2.06 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 45.5 | 3.08 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 2.12 | 3.04 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 42.8 | 3.46 | 0.45 | 0.58 | 2.44 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 40.0 | 3.64 | 0.35 | 0.75 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 40.6 | 3.94 | 0.31 | 0.76 | 2.87 | 3.81 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 39.2 | 4.06 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 3.07 | 3.82 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 36.8 | 3.98 | 0.52 | 0.61 | 2.86 | 3.69 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 38.8 | 4.16 | 0.66 | 0.59 | 2.90 | 3.36 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.2 | 3.98 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 2.71 | 3.44 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Fine | $25,830 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-10-03 | Fine | $7,000 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-06-27 | Fine | $10,000 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-11 | Fine | $20,500 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-03-27 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2026-03-27 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | G | 2026-03-16 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2026-03-16 |
| 2025-08-12 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-09-02 |
| 2025-05-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-06-10 |
| 2025-03-28 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-04-07 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0712 | Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits. | E | 2025-04-22 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | E | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-03-26 |
| 2025-03-17 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2025-04-01 |
| 2025-02-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-02-21 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-02-28 |
| 2025-02-21 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-10-14 |
| 2024-10-03 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-10-17 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-07-17 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | G | 2024-05-14 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-05-14 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | E | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-05-14 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2024-05-28 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-04-04 |
| 2024-03-11 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | D | 2024-04-04 |
| 2023-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-10-09 |
| 2023-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-10-09 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2023-06-28 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2023-09-01 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2023-06-15 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 0 | $848 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | fmr | 0 | $777 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 1 | $739 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | fmr | 1 | $782 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 2 | $903 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | fmr | 2 | $1,026 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 3 | $954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | fmr | 3 | $1,248 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,150 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | fmr | 4 | $1,365 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,063 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17081 | acs median gross | $885 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17081 | acs recent mover gross | $954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | 0 | $855 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | 1 | $759 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | 2 | $935 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,019 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,174 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62864 | acs median gross | $901 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 62864 | acs recent mover gross | $938 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | safmr | 0 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,155 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $945 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | safmr | 2 | $1,050 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,408 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,152 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | safmr | 3 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62864 | safmr | 4 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |