Reads as: riskier than 76.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BILBO RICHARD
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
MORRIS ANDREW
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
GA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.68
3.02
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.26
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.55
2.76
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.73
3.09
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
57.8
2.68
0.08
0.71
1.89
2.55
0.0%
2025Q3
92
57.0
2.83
0.10
0.80
1.93
2.70
1.6%
2025Q2
91
53.9
2.83
0.13
0.76
1.95
2.63
0.0%
2025Q1
90
48.0
2.84
0.18
0.83
1.84
2.66
0.0%
2024Q4
92
46.3
2.94
0.17
0.86
1.91
2.82
0.0%
2024Q3
92
49.2
2.64
0.14
0.81
1.68
2.48
0.0%
2024Q2
91
47.7
2.92
0.21
0.87
1.84
2.60
23.2%
2024Q1
91
47.1
2.89
0.17
0.93
1.79
2.78
25.4%
2023Q4
92
47.2
2.83
0.17
0.93
1.73
2.72
15.7%
2023Q3
92
40.4
3.23
0.27
1.08
1.88
3.13
18.8%
2023Q2
91
39.4
3.25
0.25
1.14
1.86
2.96
19.4%
2023Q1
90
39.3
3.19
0.20
1.21
1.79
2.81
18.6%
2022Q4
92
40.3
3.13
0.19
1.17
1.76
2.94
14.9%
2022Q3
92
38.9
2.76
0.24
0.65
1.87
2.67
8.1%
2022Q2
91
37.0
2.11
0.26
0.00
1.86
2.21
7.8%
2022Q1
90
38.0
1.80
0.10
0.00
1.70
2.01
1.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5
C × 1D × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-23
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-05-06
2023-02-08
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-03-25
2021-07-23
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2021-09-06
2021-07-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-09-06
2021-07-23
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
C
2021-09-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BILBO, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
CROMER, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, PAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENGEN, FRANCES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIMSEY, SARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANCASTER, NICHOLAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
MCGILL, BRANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, JANICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, PAMELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, PAMELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINGATE, ANNE MARIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW MORRIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2004-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE MARIE WINGATE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2018-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDY MCGILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2015-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANCES HENGEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANICE MORRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA CROMER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2015-12-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS LANCASTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2015-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAM DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2016-12-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA WILSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BILBO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2013-06-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH KIMSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 13311
acs median gross
0
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
fmr
0
$942
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 13311
acs median gross
1
$700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
fmr
1
$948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 13311
acs median gross
2
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
fmr
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 13311
acs median gross
3
$1,059
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
fmr
3
$1,411
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 13311
acs median gross
4
$1,358
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
fmr
4
$1,868
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 13311
acs median gross
5
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
acs median gross
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 13311
acs recent mover gross
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
0
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
1
$488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
2
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
3
$1,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
4
$1,358
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
5
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs median gross
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 30528
acs recent mover gross
$1,300
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 30528
payment standard 110
0
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 90
0
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
safmr
0
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 110
1
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 90
1
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
safmr
1
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 110
2
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 90
2
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
safmr
2
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 110
3
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 90
3
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
safmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 110
4
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
payment standard 90
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 30528
safmr
4
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.