Composite
4.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 45F949
A
ROLLING MEADOWS
snfTX
3006 MCNIEL, WICHITA FALLS, TX 76309 · CCN 45F949
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
2
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 4.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2Components4CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties0Deficiencies0Licensure0Ownership0Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent35
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| state reg risk | 20.9 | 4.5 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 13.93 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 8.40 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
4| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| state reg risk | 4.5 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.2%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
35.0
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 1.10 | +0.49 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.5%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
75.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 1.10 | +0.68 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
0No ownership edges on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — TX snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 0 | $796 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | fmr | 0 | $831 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 1 | $822 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | fmr | 1 | $925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 2 | $981 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | fmr | 2 | $1,136 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,265 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | fmr | 3 | $1,553 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,466 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | fmr | 4 | $1,759 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,113 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48485 | acs median gross | $1,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48485 | acs recent mover gross | $1,183 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,423 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | 1 | $677 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,029 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,211 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,447 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 76309 | acs median gross | $1,068 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 76309 | acs recent mover gross | $872 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | safmr | 0 | $820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | safmr | 1 | $910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,008 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | safmr | 2 | $1,120 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,683 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,377 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | safmr | 3 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,903 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,557 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 76309 | safmr | 4 | $1,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.