Reads as: riskier than 65.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.76
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.56
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.83
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
57.2
2.76
0.47
0.51
1.78
2.56
12.4%
2025Q3
92
56.6
2.78
0.51
0.47
1.80
2.56
20.9%
2025Q2
91
52.3
2.82
0.57
0.47
1.77
2.62
13.9%
2025Q1
90
53.3
2.67
0.47
0.56
1.64
2.52
5.4%
2024Q4
92
55.1
2.59
0.53
0.43
1.62
2.57
10.2%
2024Q3
92
54.5
2.59
0.37
0.62
1.59
2.51
20.1%
2024Q2
91
54.1
3.02
0.28
0.74
2.00
2.83
21.0%
2024Q1
91
57.4
2.97
0.31
0.65
2.00
2.71
18.6%
2023Q4
92
54.2
2.79
0.35
0.62
1.82
2.62
16.5%
2023Q3
92
51.9
2.85
0.34
0.69
1.83
2.64
3.7%
2023Q2
91
49.4
2.79
0.34
0.68
1.77
2.57
0.1%
2023Q1
90
52.3
2.95
0.21
0.84
1.90
2.77
4.7%
2022Q4
92
50.3
2.97
0.23
0.85
1.89
2.77
6.9%
2022Q3
92
49.3
3.18
0.24
0.98
1.95
3.22
21.8%
2022Q1
90
46.6
2.65
0.33
0.72
1.61
2.56
23.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-30
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-11-20
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2025-11-20
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-20
2025-06-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-07-08
2025-06-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-07-08
2025-06-18
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2025-07-08
2025-06-18
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-07-08
2024-05-22
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-05-23
2024-05-22
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-23
2024-05-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-23
2024-05-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-05-23
2023-04-04
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-04-10
2023-04-04
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-04-10
2023-04-04
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2023-04-10
2023-04-04
Health
F0926
Have policies on smoking.
D
2023-04-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ASLAM, HUNAIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HSMTX/HUNTSVILLE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
HSMTX/HUNTSVILLE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HSMTXHUNTSVILLE LLC
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HUNTSVILLE REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HUNTSVILLE REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLEN, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HUNAIN ASLAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HUNTSVILLE REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HUNTSVILLE REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JOSHUA WHITE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA WALLEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-12-31
$591,239
$289,122
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$555,408
$244,923
—
—
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$640,608
$238,280
—
—
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$512,287
$236,742
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48471
acs median gross
0
$743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
fmr
0
$857
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48471
acs median gross
1
$947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
fmr
1
$1,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48471
acs median gross
2
$1,015
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
fmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48471
acs median gross
3
$1,342
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
fmr
3
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48471
acs median gross
4
$1,502
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
fmr
4
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48471
acs median gross
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48471
acs recent mover gross
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
0
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
1
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
2
$1,009
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
3
$1,336
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
4
$1,512
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs median gross
$1,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77340
acs recent mover gross
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77340
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 110
1
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 90
1
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
safmr
1
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 110
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 90
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
safmr
2
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 110
3
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 90
3
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
safmr
3
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 110
4
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
payment standard 90
4
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77340
safmr
4
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.