Composite
99.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 99.0 | 99.0 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 35.36 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 63.6 | 55.7 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 27.26 | in index |
| chow risk | 90.0 | 55.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 19.29 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 55.7 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 99.0 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 55.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 55.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.0 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 99.0 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.50 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 27.00 | +0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.76 | +0.25 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 27.00 | -3.58 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 1.76 | +0.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.87 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 2.89 | +0.30 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.42 | -0.22 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MN median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 1.76 | 3.49 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.77 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 1.76 | 3.59 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 14.8 | 1.76 | 0.75 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 1.77 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 11.0 | 2.18 | 1.21 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 1.92 | 7.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 10.5 | 2.18 | 1.83 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 1.56 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 10.0 | 2.11 | 1.72 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 1.59 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 11.2 | 2.28 | 1.36 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 11.0 | 2.52 | 1.39 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 2.24 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 12.5 | 2.21 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 0.01 | 2.03 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 12.8 | 1.59 | 0.43 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 1.35 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 12.4 | 2.11 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.99 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 11.6 | 2.11 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 11.4 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 11.8 | 2.01 | 0.76 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 2.02 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 11.5 | 2.02 | 0.92 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 2.05 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 11.2 | 2.04 | 0.95 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | J | 2026-03-31 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0680 | Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0942 | Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2026-04-06 | Health | F0945 | Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program. | F | 2026-05-29 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2025-02-03 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | 2025-04-04 |
| 2024-10-23 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | G | 2024-11-28 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-02-09 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2024-02-09 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | CURA OF ONAMIA | — | — | — | 57 | CURA OF ONAMIA LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | SHAKOPEE FRIENDSHIP MANOR | — | — | — | 60 | SHAKOPEE CARE LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST | — | — | — | 48 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST LLC |
| 2024-10-29 | Cura of Sauk Centre | — | — | — | 60 | CURA OF SAUK CENTRE LLC |
| 2024-10-15 | Heartwood | — | — | — | 54 | CROSBY SENIOR SERVICES CARE CENTER |
| 2024-02-13 | Cura of Monticello | — | — | — | 67 | CURA OF MONTICELLO LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATI CENTER | — | — | — | 61 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-15 | ST BENEDICTS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 75 | ECUMEN SBC ST CLOUD PROPERTIES LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | Frazee Care Center | — | — | — | 42 | LEGACY SENIOR SERVICES |
| 2023-06-05 | CURA OF LE SUEUR | — | — | — | 50 | CURA OF LE SUEUR LLC |
| 2023-05-01 | LAKEHOUSE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 260 | LAKE HARRIET OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,141 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | fmr | 0 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,293 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | fmr | 1 | $1,405 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,677 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | fmr | 2 | $1,709 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,963 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | fmr | 3 | $2,262 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,216 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | fmr | 4 | $2,531 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,999 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27053 | acs median gross | $1,487 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 27053 | acs recent mover gross | $1,628 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,124 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,233 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,735 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,054 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,629 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55408 | acs median gross | $1,364 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 55408 | acs recent mover gross | $1,425 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,251 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | safmr | 0 | $1,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | safmr | 1 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,101 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,719 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | safmr | 2 | $1,910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,277 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | safmr | 3 | $2,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,113 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,547 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55408 | safmr | 4 | $2,830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |