Reads as: riskier than 7.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
PACE GARRY
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BEEBE HAROLD
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.82
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.43
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.93
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.17
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
49.3
4.82
0.43
1.02
3.37
3.93
0.7%
2025Q3
92
49.3
4.65
0.42
0.98
3.26
3.84
0.5%
2025Q2
91
50.9
4.14
0.34
1.00
2.81
3.23
0.7%
2025Q1
90
49.8
3.94
0.28
0.96
2.69
3.23
0.7%
2024Q4
92
50.6
4.15
0.20
1.15
2.80
3.53
0.2%
2024Q3
92
49.8
3.94
0.18
1.26
2.51
3.30
0.1%
2024Q2
91
50.9
3.84
0.13
1.23
2.48
3.15
0.6%
2024Q1
91
45.3
3.93
0.11
1.37
2.45
3.37
5.8%
2023Q4
92
47.3
3.67
0.07
1.29
2.31
3.20
10.8%
2023Q3
92
48.7
3.55
0.19
1.21
2.15
3.07
7.0%
2023Q2
91
45.3
4.02
0.20
1.41
2.41
3.27
9.7%
2023Q1
90
43.9
3.72
0.21
1.37
2.14
3.28
5.2%
2022Q4
92
42.3
3.69
0.21
1.34
2.15
3.17
3.2%
2022Q3
92
40.8
3.81
0.21
1.32
2.27
3.21
11.9%
2022Q2
91
37.4
4.35
0.24
1.52
2.59
3.84
17.6%
2022Q1
90
37.2
4.25
0.24
1.52
2.49
3.66
26.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
G
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-10-31
2025-10-01
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
G
2025-10-31
2025-03-04
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2025-02-13
2025-03-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-02-13
2024-06-19
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-07-30
2024-06-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-07-30
2024-06-19
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-30
2024-06-19
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-07-30
2024-06-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-07-30
2023-12-27
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-01-25
2023-03-29
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-05-18
2023-03-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-05-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DELANEY, STEVEN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEDIKEY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILES HEALTHCARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACE, GARRY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONDADO HEALTH LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, HAROLD
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COTHERN, JOY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, REBECCA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALLER, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARRY PACE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN DELANEY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
23%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
23%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
23%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TUNICA PROPERTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
23%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HAROLD BEEBE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA SHELTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOY COTHERN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WALLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$716,978
—
$132,985
$254,811
$30,685
16
propco
2023-12-31
$722,908
—
$99,682
$238,420
$38,278
16
propco
2022-12-31
$648,587
$277,800
—
$204,214
$48,416
9
propco
2021-12-31
$627,319
$273,625
—
$190,502
$41,206
9
propco
2020-12-31
$691,935
$343,225
—
$190,502
$29,373
9
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28143
acs median gross
0
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
fmr
0
$986
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28143
acs median gross
1
$833
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
fmr
1
$1,073
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28143
acs median gross
2
$953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
fmr
2
$1,186
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28143
acs median gross
3
$976
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
fmr
3
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28143
acs median gross
4
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
fmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28143
acs median gross
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28143
acs recent mover gross
$1,223
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38676
acs median gross
2
$741
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38676
acs median gross
3
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38676
acs median gross
4
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38676
acs median gross
$927
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 38676
acs recent mover gross
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 38676
payment standard 110
0
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 90
0
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
safmr
0
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 110
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 90
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
safmr
1
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 110
3
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 90
3
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
safmr
3
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 38676
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.