Composite
39.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 79.3 | 75.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.30 | in index |
| financial risk | 59.4 | 51.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.71 | in index |
| billing conduct | 28.8 | 31.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.65 | in index |
| chow risk | 28.7 | 27.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.31 | in index |
| staffing risk | 13.6 | 13.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.62 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 31.0 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 30.2 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 51.9 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 75.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 13.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 59.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 39.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.1 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.2 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 75.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 75.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 13.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.38 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.16 | -0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.16 | -0.40 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.34 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.16 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.04 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.20 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 43.1 | 4.16 | 0.38 | 1.11 | 2.67 | 4.04 | 4.6% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 44.2 | 4.20 | 0.35 | 1.16 | 2.69 | 4.05 | 7.5% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 45.5 | 4.08 | 0.32 | 1.13 | 2.64 | 3.86 | 6.7% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 45.9 | 3.89 | 0.29 | 1.06 | 2.55 | 3.71 | 7.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 47.7 | 3.93 | 0.32 | 1.03 | 2.58 | 3.77 | 4.8% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 44.5 | 4.11 | 0.28 | 1.09 | 2.74 | 3.94 | 3.4% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 45.0 | 3.88 | 0.32 | 0.99 | 2.58 | 3.71 | 7.7% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 45.7 | 3.92 | 0.28 | 0.98 | 2.67 | 3.78 | 11.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 46.1 | 3.75 | 0.30 | 0.86 | 2.59 | 3.60 | 12.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 48.9 | 3.55 | 0.29 | 0.79 | 2.47 | 3.45 | 11.6% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 44.3 | 3.54 | 0.28 | 0.77 | 2.48 | 3.42 | 6.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 38.2 | 3.97 | 0.35 | 1.03 | 2.59 | 3.70 | 6.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 34.6 | 3.93 | 0.32 | 1.06 | 2.55 | 3.76 | 4.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 39.8 | 3.69 | 0.30 | 0.95 | 2.44 | 3.51 | 1.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 41.5 | 3.69 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 2.49 | 3.63 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.5 | 3.96 | 0.32 | 1.11 | 2.53 | 3.87 | 1.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | Fine | $18,070 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2026-02-04 |
| 2025-06-16 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-07-03 |
| 2025-01-29 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-02-21 |
| 2025-01-29 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-02-21 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | J | 2024-09-17 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-22 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2023-12-22 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARP, BENJAMIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2023-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KARP, MATTHEW | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2023-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BAK, ABRAHAM | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-05-13 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CARAVAN OPERATIONS CORP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2012-09-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GUEVARRA, MARYDES | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GUEVARRA, MARYDES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-04-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KARAKASHIAN, GARO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KARP, BENJAMIN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KARP, MATTHEW | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-02-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BENJAMIN KARP | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2015-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MATTHEW KARP | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2023-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BENJAMIN KARP | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2023-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ABRAHAM BAK | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2015-05-13 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GARO KARAKASHIAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARYDES GUEVARRA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-04-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARYDES GUEVARRA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,787 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,985 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,294 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,393 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,556 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91204 | acs median gross | $2,105 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91204 | acs recent mover gross | $2,561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $2,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | safmr | 0 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,772 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,268 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | safmr | 1 | $2,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,454 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | safmr | 2 | $3,140 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,378 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,582 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | safmr | 3 | $3,980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,987 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91204 | safmr | 4 | $4,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |