1209 21ST AVENUE, ROCK ISLAND, IL 61201 · CCN 146099
Composite
23.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
94
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 23.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
STALEY THOMAS
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.08
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.51
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.59
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.27
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.2
4.08
0.51
0.99
2.58
3.59
0.0%
2025Q3
92
75.2
4.27
0.46
1.09
2.71
3.83
0.0%
2025Q2
91
75.9
4.04
0.42
1.05
2.56
3.68
0.0%
2025Q1
90
74.4
4.09
0.49
1.05
2.55
3.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
78.3
4.13
0.46
1.05
2.62
3.79
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.2
4.15
0.40
1.11
2.65
3.65
0.0%
2024Q2
91
75.7
4.26
0.28
1.18
2.80
3.81
0.0%
2024Q1
91
77.9
4.03
0.38
1.14
2.51
3.52
0.0%
2023Q4
92
77.1
3.90
0.45
1.07
2.38
3.49
0.0%
2023Q2
91
75.6
4.10
0.39
1.16
2.56
3.94
22.6%
2023Q1
90
76.6
3.45
0.44
1.12
1.88
3.30
15.7%
2022Q4
92
75.8
0.35
0.11
0.04
0.19
0.39
27.3%
2022Q2
91
68.1
3.56
0.38
0.99
2.19
3.45
5.7%
2022Q1
90
69.3
3.27
0.19
0.96
2.12
3.00
14.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-02-25
2025-09-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-30
2025-04-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-04-24
2024-07-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-08-14
2024-07-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-07-25
2023-07-19
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-08-09
2023-07-19
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-08-16
2023-07-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-08-11
2022-05-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-05-27
2022-05-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-05-27
2022-05-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-05-27
2022-05-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-05-27
2022-05-09
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
F
2022-05-27
2022-05-09
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
D
2022-05-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AUSTIN, ANN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AUSTIN, ANN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER, ADA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLVIN, DAMON
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEPAUW ELSBERG, CHRISTINE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEVINNEY, PATRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
DOYLE, SHEA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOYLE, SHEA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOLEY, MOLLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HULLON, JESSEY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HULLON, JESSEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEVERENZ, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOQUIST, JON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCEVOY, JOHN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAPPAS, THEODOSIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-08-08
current
pecos_ownership
ROGALSKI, EDWARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHATTUCK, MOLLY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHATTUCK, MOLLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPITZFADEN, THOMAS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STALEY, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
TALLMAN, ELIZABETH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THORSON, JOHN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADA CHRISTOPHER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANN AUSTIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANN AUSTIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE DEPAUW ELSBERG
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAMON COLVIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD ROGALSKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH TALLMAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSEY HULLON
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSEY HULLON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCEVOY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN THORSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON LOQUIST
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK LEVERENZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOLLY FOLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOLLY SHATTUCK
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOLLY SHATTUCK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK DEVINNEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEA DOYLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEA DOYLE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THEODOSIS PAPPAS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2005-08-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS SPITZFADEN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS STALEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17161
acs median gross
0
$794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
fmr
0
$817
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17161
acs median gross
1
$676
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
fmr
1
$928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17161
acs median gross
2
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
fmr
2
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17161
acs median gross
3
$1,151
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
fmr
3
$1,498
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17161
acs median gross
4
$1,378
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
fmr
4
$1,819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17161
acs median gross
5
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
acs median gross
$889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17161
acs recent mover gross
$891
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
0
$735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
1
$587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
2
$902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
3
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
4
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs median gross
$847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 61201
acs recent mover gross
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 61201
payment standard 110
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 90
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
safmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 110
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 90
3
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
safmr
3
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 110
4
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
payment standard 90
4
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 61201
safmr
4
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.