Composite
46.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 66.6 | 59.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.37 | in index |
| billing conduct | 61.3 | 44.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.15 | in index |
| staffing risk | 37.9 | 37.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 7.29 | in index |
| financial risk | 28.2 | 32.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.51 | in index |
| chow risk | 33.1 | 31.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.82 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 44.0 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 38.5 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 32.8 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 8.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 59.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 37.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 48.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 28.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 38.7 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 59.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 59.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 37.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 37.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.29 | +0.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.09 | +0.25 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.21 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.09 | -0.60 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.52 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.29 | +0.23 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.55 | +0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.48 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.62 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.43 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 74.9 | 3.48 | 0.05 | 0.99 | 2.45 | 3.62 | 28.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 76.3 | 2.91 | 0.11 | 0.73 | 2.07 | 2.94 | 7.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 79.1 | 2.84 | 0.14 | 0.74 | 1.96 | 2.92 | 9.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 80.4 | 2.83 | 0.11 | 0.75 | 1.97 | 2.79 | 5.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 79.0 | 2.93 | 0.10 | 0.76 | 2.07 | 2.96 | 5.1% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 81.2 | 2.92 | 0.10 | 0.73 | 2.09 | 2.85 | 4.4% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 85.1 | 2.79 | 0.05 | 0.67 | 2.07 | 2.72 | 9.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 82.7 | 2.77 | 0.05 | 0.68 | 2.04 | 2.80 | 12.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 83.5 | 2.69 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 1.94 | 2.45 | 12.9% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 88.1 | 2.68 | 0.06 | 0.70 | 1.91 | 2.52 | 8.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 90.5 | 2.49 | 0.12 | 0.65 | 1.72 | 2.53 | 8.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 80.3 | 3.01 | 0.10 | 0.82 | 2.08 | 2.95 | 6.3% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 77.4 | 2.98 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 2.04 | 2.73 | 1.8% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 66.6 | 3.31 | 0.10 | 1.06 | 2.15 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 62.9 | 3.33 | 0.05 | 1.08 | 2.20 | 3.08 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 60.5 | 3.37 | 0.05 | 1.15 | 2.18 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-28 | Fine | $7,443 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-12-06 |
| 2024-07-03 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-07-25 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-12-08 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | F | 2024-01-05 |
| 2023-09-28 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-09-29 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2022-10-31 |
| 2022-10-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-10-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINE TREE HOLDING LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-04-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DOWNEY, MACK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-04-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HERZKA, MATISYOHU | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MH AR OPCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCHEINBAUM, SHLOMO | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MACK DOWNEY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2021-04-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MATISYOHU HERZKA | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 65% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHLOMO SCHEINBAUM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ZCS AR OPCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 326 LINDLEY LANE LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-07-01 | ended 2021-04-04 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05067 | acs median gross | 0 | $561 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05067 | fmr | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05067 | acs median gross | 1 | $520 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05067 | fmr | 1 | $671 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05067 | acs median gross | 2 | $646 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05067 | fmr | 2 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05067 | acs median gross | 3 | $849 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05067 | fmr | 3 | $1,055 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05067 | acs median gross | 4 | $761 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05067 | fmr | 4 | $1,165 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05067 | acs median gross | $668 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05067 | acs recent mover gross | $758 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72112 | acs median gross | 1 | $551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72112 | acs median gross | 2 | $659 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72112 | acs median gross | 3 | $891 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72112 | acs median gross | 4 | $749 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72112 | acs median gross | $668 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72112 | acs recent mover gross | $529 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $567 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | safmr | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | safmr | 1 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $968 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $792 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | safmr | 2 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | safmr | 3 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72112 | safmr | 4 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |