Composite
87.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 85.2 | 72.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.66 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 59.8 | 50.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.80 | in index |
| staffing risk | 69.8 | 69.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.42 | in index |
| billing conduct | 48.7 | 38.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.24 | in index |
| chow risk | 56.6 | 55.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.53 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 40% fined | A M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC | 5 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 38.8 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.9 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 86.8 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 72.0 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 50.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 69.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 76.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 56.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 66.1 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.1 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 50.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 50.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 69.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 69.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 8.91 | -0.98 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.53 | -0.18 | |
| Occupancy | 0.64 | +0.18 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.13 | +0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 9.29 | -0.50 | |
| Occupancy | 0.64 | +0.47 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.53 | -0.24 | |
| Penalties, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.17 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | KY median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.99 | 3.11 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.90 | 3.01 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.02 | 3.16 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 160.5 | 2.99 | 0.27 | 0.83 | 1.88 | 2.90 | 13.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 171.9 | 2.79 | 0.12 | 0.80 | 1.87 | 2.71 | 9.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 171.9 | 2.79 | 0.15 | 0.75 | 1.89 | 2.76 | 4.5% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 172.4 | 2.84 | 0.23 | 0.79 | 1.81 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 174.1 | 3.23 | 0.28 | 1.07 | 1.89 | 3.08 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 174.2 | 3.21 | 0.26 | 1.19 | 1.75 | 2.99 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 177.7 | 3.19 | 0.24 | 1.23 | 1.72 | 2.97 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 177.1 | 3.43 | 0.20 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 3.32 | 4.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 176.8 | 3.43 | 0.20 | 1.35 | 1.89 | 3.23 | 15.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 185.3 | 3.04 | 0.19 | 1.10 | 1.75 | 2.91 | 14.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 169.0 | 2.97 | 0.13 | 1.07 | 1.77 | 2.78 | 11.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 166.9 | 3.04 | 0.10 | 1.13 | 1.81 | 2.86 | 29.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 174.9 | 2.90 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 1.74 | 2.74 | 43.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 186.1 | 2.91 | 0.16 | 1.05 | 1.69 | 2.62 | 41.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 178.1 | 3.00 | 0.18 | 1.07 | 1.75 | 2.73 | 45.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 169.7 | 2.93 | 0.20 | 1.06 | 1.66 | 2.51 | 32.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | Fine | $5,434 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-08-27 | Fine | $5,434 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-07-17 | Fine | $13,762 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | F | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | G | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | F | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-09-25 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-08-19 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-08-19 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2021-11-24 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | J | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | G | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | J | 2021-11-24 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2021-11-24 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | G | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | J | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | J | 2021-12-17 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0837 | Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility. | F | 2021-09-21 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2021-12-17 |
| 2021-07-03 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2021-09-21 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2017-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MEISELS, JOSEPH | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 23% | 2017-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MONAGHAM, PETER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-05-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOSEPH MEISELS | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 23% | 2017-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PETER MONAGHAM | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-05-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-09-01 | — | LANDMARK OF LOUISVILLE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | PARKWAY EXTENDED CARE CENTER, INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Auburn Nursing and Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 66 | AUBURN OPCO LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | Henson Park Health & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | HENSON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | Chestnut Ridge Health & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 92 | CHESTNUT SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | Green Meadows Health & Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 122 | GREEN MEADOWS SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | Maple Grove Senior Living LLC | — | — | — | 90 | MAPLE GROVE SENIOR LIVING LLC |
| 2024-08-30 | Sam Swope Care Center | — | — | — | 136 | MASONIC HOMES OF LOUISVILLE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Lyndon Crossing | — | — | — | 145 | LYNDON CROSSING, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Clifton Heights | — | — | — | 110 | CLIFTON HEIGHTS, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Green River Trails | — | — | — | 118 | GREEN RIVER TRAILS, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Mountain Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 59 | MONTICELLO KY OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Frankfort Trails | — | — | — | 100 | FRANKFORT TRAILS, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | Vanceburg Hills | — | — | — | 94 | VANCEBURG HILLS, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 0 | $932 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | fmr | 0 | $966 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 1 | $954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | fmr | 1 | $1,047 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,169 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | fmr | 2 | $1,272 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,385 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | fmr | 3 | $1,625 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,591 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | fmr | 4 | $1,891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,619 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 21111 | acs median gross | $1,149 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 21111 | acs recent mover gross | $1,269 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,264 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | 1 | $865 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,181 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,659 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,672 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 40217 | acs median gross | $1,175 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | safmr | 0 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,232 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,008 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | safmr | 1 | $1,120 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,496 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,224 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | safmr | 2 | $1,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,566 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | safmr | 3 | $1,740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 40217 | safmr | 4 | $2,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |