Reads as: riskier than 37.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
OMNICARE LLC
43 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
ESTES TIMOTHY
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.28
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.58
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.87
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.45
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.1
4.28
0.58
1.26
2.44
3.87
0.0%
2025Q3
92
50.3
3.71
0.48
1.06
2.17
3.23
0.0%
2025Q2
91
47.3
3.48
0.39
1.16
1.93
3.09
0.0%
2025Q1
90
48.3
3.75
0.41
1.20
2.14
3.44
0.0%
2024Q4
92
49.7
3.94
0.35
1.12
2.46
3.59
0.0%
2024Q3
92
51.3
3.71
0.20
0.96
2.55
3.51
0.0%
2024Q2
91
50.5
3.48
0.21
0.99
2.27
3.05
0.0%
2024Q1
91
53.4
3.07
0.23
0.96
1.88
2.84
0.0%
2023Q4
92
52.6
3.43
0.31
0.98
2.14
3.12
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.6
3.68
0.32
1.15
2.21
3.26
0.0%
2023Q2
91
51.8
3.50
0.25
1.24
2.00
2.96
0.0%
2023Q1
90
46.2
3.47
0.17
1.32
1.98
3.32
0.0%
2022Q4
92
47.6
3.67
0.21
1.23
2.22
3.59
0.0%
2022Q3
92
52.8
3.53
0.25
0.90
2.38
3.30
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.6
3.64
0.41
0.81
2.42
3.29
0.0%
2022Q1
90
49.9
3.28
0.33
0.85
2.10
3.03
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
D
2026-03-02
2026-01-22
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-03-02
2026-01-22
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-03-02
2025-04-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-04-30
2024-08-15
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-09-25
2024-08-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-25
2023-01-19
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-02-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
B.H.R.H. HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-08-11
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
BURLISON, SANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
BURNS, SHARON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-01-28
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, TRACY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
ESTES, TIMOTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
FREEMAN, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
GREEN, DONNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-05-04
current
pecos_ownership
KING, CURTIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUHA, ASHLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-10-04
current
pecos_ownership
OMNICARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIPPE, LYNN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
ROTOLO, DAVID
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2002-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
ROTOLO, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
RUBERTINO, FROSINI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, DEBORAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
WHITLOW, CARRIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-05
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID ROTOLO
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2002-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT ROTOLO
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2002-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN PHILIPPE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2002-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY MUHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-10-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARRIE WHITLOW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CURTIS KING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH WHITE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA GREEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-05-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FROSINI RUBERTINO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES FREEMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDY BURLISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-02-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARON BURNS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-01-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY ESTES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRACY DAVIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$841,303
$57,323
—
$373,496
$80,063
10
—
2023-12-31
$850,206
$63,468
—
$432,678
$72,441
9
—
2022-12-31
$891,706
$63,468
—
$478,638
$72,907
9
—
2021-12-31
$907,462
$70,123
—
$479,640
$84,924
9
—
2020-12-31
$891,048
$78,488
—
$459,986
$81,611
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28121
acs median gross
0
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
fmr
0
$1,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28121
acs median gross
1
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
fmr
1
$1,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28121
acs median gross
2
$1,288
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
fmr
2
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28121
acs median gross
3
$1,340
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
fmr
3
$1,544
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28121
acs median gross
4
$1,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
fmr
4
$1,705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28121
acs median gross
$1,270
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28121
acs recent mover gross
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39073
acs median gross
2
$797
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39073
acs median gross
3
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39073
acs median gross
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39073
acs recent mover gross
$615
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 39073
payment standard 110
0
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 90
0
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
safmr
0
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 110
1
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 90
1
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
safmr
1
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 110
2
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 90
2
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
safmr
2
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 110
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
payment standard 90
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39073
safmr
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.