Reads as: riskier than 2.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
EIDE BAILLY LLP
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.53
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.16
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.11
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.70
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
34.9
4.53
1.16
0.17
3.19
4.11
11.4%
2025Q3
92
35.5
4.55
1.05
0.30
3.20
3.92
5.5%
2025Q2
91
37.2
4.17
1.08
0.17
2.92
3.59
9.9%
2025Q1
90
35.1
4.46
1.20
0.18
3.08
4.12
17.8%
2024Q4
92
35.4
4.25
1.15
0.22
2.88
3.66
19.1%
2024Q3
92
35.2
4.47
1.21
0.22
3.04
3.79
8.5%
2024Q2
91
34.0
4.03
0.84
0.03
3.17
3.42
21.1%
2024Q1
91
33.8
3.65
0.89
0.04
2.72
3.23
21.6%
2023Q4
92
30.7
3.41
1.03
0.02
2.36
2.85
20.3%
2023Q3
92
30.5
4.04
0.77
0.35
2.92
3.71
32.5%
2023Q2
91
27.1
4.01
0.94
0.33
2.74
3.58
31.4%
2023Q1
90
24.6
4.40
1.23
0.24
2.93
4.23
20.4%
2022Q4
92
25.1
4.88
1.36
0.18
3.34
4.55
15.6%
2022Q3
92
30.2
4.27
1.19
0.26
2.82
3.83
16.0%
2022Q2
91
30.9
4.31
1.22
0.05
3.04
3.75
22.1%
2022Q1
90
28.2
3.27
1.16
0.20
1.91
2.37
4.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 11E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-02
Health · complaint
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
D
2025-12-26
2025-05-22
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-06-06
2024-12-24
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2025-01-24
2024-07-25
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-25
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-08-19
2024-05-16
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2024-06-12
2024-05-16
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-12
2024-05-16
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-12
2023-07-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-31
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-31
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-31
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-31
Health
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2023-08-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARAMARK HEALTHCARE SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
BARR, DEANNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
BENDER, REBECCA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLAKE, BRADEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COTTON, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EIDE BAILLY LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENGBERG, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
GREAT RIVER HEALTH SYSTEM INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
HOLLENBECK, MICKIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLOPFENSTEIN, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAHER, KARLA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MALCOM, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, DOUGLAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
MCCOY, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCKILLIP, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
MCNAMEE, CARLA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POPE, TARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROTTSMAN, JOEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYON, JOEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELCHER, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS-LOWE, BRANDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YODER, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
BRADEN BLAKE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDY WILLIAMS-LOWE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARLA MCNAMEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES YODER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA COTTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEANNA BARR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS MARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL PROTTSMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL RYON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCKILLIP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA MAHER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY KLOPFENSTEIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MCCOY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL WELCHER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICKIE HOLLENBECK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBECCA BENDER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT ENGBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TARA POPE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM MALCOM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2025-01-01
—
HENRY COUNTY SOLDIERS' AND SAILORS' MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19087
acs median gross
0
$384
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
fmr
0
$647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19087
acs median gross
1
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
fmr
1
$716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19087
acs median gross
2
$852
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
fmr
2
$939
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19087
acs median gross
3
$1,082
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
fmr
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19087
acs median gross
4
$925
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
fmr
4
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19087
acs median gross
$820
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19087
acs recent mover gross
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
0
$384
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
1
$634
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
2
$878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
3
$1,095
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
4
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs median gross
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52641
acs recent mover gross
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 52641
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 110
1
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 90
1
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
safmr
1
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 110
4
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
payment standard 90
4
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52641
safmr
4
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.