Reads as: riskier than 55.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
DES 2009 GST TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
BARUCH DAVID
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
DES HOLDING CO INC
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT LLC
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
STRAUS DANIEL
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
CARE ONE LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
DES C 2009 GRAT
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.63
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.27
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.37
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.7
3.34
0.63
0.86
1.85
3.27
0.0%
2025Q3
92
101.0
3.26
0.61
0.89
1.76
3.09
0.1%
2025Q2
91
102.3
3.34
0.49
0.96
1.88
3.22
0.1%
2025Q1
90
100.6
3.36
0.58
0.89
1.89
3.35
0.0%
2024Q4
92
89.0
3.71
0.65
0.89
2.17
3.67
0.0%
2024Q3
92
93.5
3.64
0.75
0.88
2.01
3.56
0.0%
2024Q2
91
100.4
3.23
0.65
0.77
1.82
3.19
0.7%
2024Q1
91
95.5
3.34
0.53
0.94
1.87
3.27
1.0%
2023Q4
92
96.8
3.16
0.64
0.76
1.76
3.00
0.4%
2023Q3
92
89.8
3.31
0.72
0.74
1.85
3.18
0.2%
2023Q2
91
88.3
3.40
0.67
0.79
1.94
3.34
1.2%
2023Q1
90
106.1
3.13
0.58
0.85
1.69
2.95
3.8%
2022Q4
92
104.8
3.17
0.62
0.86
1.69
3.00
7.3%
2022Q3
92
99.1
3.21
0.79
0.78
1.64
3.08
11.0%
2022Q2
91
91.4
3.17
0.81
0.87
1.49
3.18
31.4%
2022Q1
90
96.2
3.39
0.75
0.90
1.74
3.33
33.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-07-05
2025-06-04
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
D
2025-06-18
2025-06-04
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-07-15
2025-06-04
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-07-15
2025-06-04
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-07-15
2025-06-04
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-07-15
2025-06-04
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-07-15
2025-06-04
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2025-07-15
2023-09-28
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-10-16
2023-09-28
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-10-16
2023-09-28
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-10-11
2023-09-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-10-16
2023-09-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-10-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARE ONE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUS, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2007-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
DES HOLDING CO., INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2007-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
DES-C 2009 GRAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2009-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
DES 2009 GST TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARUCH, DAVID
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STRAUS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2007-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BARUCH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,742,162
—
—
$-31,281
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$2,026,997
—
—
$246,935
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$1,813,487
—
—
$130,567
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$1,885,031
—
—
$129,703
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$1,935,205
—
—
$183,235
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34003
acs median gross
0
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
0
$1,778
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
1
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
2
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
2
$2,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
3
$2,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
4
$3,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
fmr
4
$3,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34003
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs median gross
$1,914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34003
acs recent mover gross
$2,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
0
$2,800
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
1
$1,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
2
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
3
$2,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07652
acs median gross
$3,032
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07652
payment standard 110
0
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 90
0
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
safmr
0
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 110
1
$3,344
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 90
1
$2,736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
safmr
1
$3,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 110
2
$3,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 90
2
$3,141
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
safmr
2
$3,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 110
3
$4,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 90
3
$3,834
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
safmr
3
$4,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 110
4
$5,973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
payment standard 90
4
$4,887
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07652
safmr
4
$5,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.