Composite
70.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 81.3 | 68.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.76 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 77.2 | 73.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.82 | in index |
| staffing risk | 49.0 | 49.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.42 | in index |
| chow risk | 46.1 | 52.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.32 | in index |
| billing conduct | 20.4 | 25.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.71 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 25.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.2 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 81.2 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 68.1 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 73.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 49.0 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 84.3 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.6 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.1 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 49.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.21 | +0.23 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | +0.22 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | -1.54 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 9.98 | -0.55 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.21 | +0.15 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.29 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.22 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.33 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 86.3 | 3.29 | 0.50 | 0.72 | 2.07 | 3.22 | 21.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 85.1 | 3.57 | 0.42 | 0.72 | 2.42 | 3.54 | 38.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 83.2 | 3.36 | 0.46 | 0.72 | 2.18 | 3.26 | 29.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 86.0 | 2.96 | 0.35 | 0.74 | 1.86 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 85.8 | 3.17 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 2.05 | 2.97 | 23.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 83.0 | 3.18 | 0.37 | 0.80 | 2.01 | 3.03 | 23.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 78.3 | 3.06 | 0.41 | 0.78 | 1.88 | 2.93 | 21.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 77.3 | 3.08 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 1.77 | 2.77 | 8.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 84.5 | 3.70 | 0.45 | 0.87 | 2.38 | 3.45 | 38.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 83.3 | 3.65 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 45.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 75.3 | 3.46 | 0.42 | 1.11 | 1.94 | 3.41 | 32.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 81.6 | 3.48 | 0.40 | 0.96 | 2.12 | 3.20 | 38.3% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 83.3 | 3.34 | 0.34 | 1.04 | 1.96 | 3.15 | 39.1% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 83.5 | 3.28 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 1.98 | 3.08 | 27.3% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 83.3 | 3.14 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 2.02 | 2.90 | 20.4% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 75.5 | 3.02 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 1.79 | 2.96 | 8.3% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Fine | $21,645 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-03-19 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2026-04-30 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-02-27 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2026-02-27 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | B | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-01-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2026-01-06 |
| 2025-11-25 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | — |
| 2025-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-05-29 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-05-29 |
| 2025-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-05-29 |
| 2025-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | E | 2025-03-24 |
| 2025-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-03-24 |
| 2025-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-03-24 |
| 2025-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2025-03-24 |
| 2025-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-03-24 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | B | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | C | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | B | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-12-05 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2021-09-13 |
| 2021-08-02 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2021-09-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPCHIK, KENNETH | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2006-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SBRIGLIO, MARTIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2006-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH KOPCHIK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2006-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARTIN SBRIGLIO | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2006-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 0 | $848 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,093 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,432 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,069 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,466 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09180 | acs median gross | $1,365 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09180 | acs recent mover gross | $1,654 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06355 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,805 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06355 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,772 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06355 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,571 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06355 | acs median gross | $1,915 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06355 | acs recent mover gross | $2,860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | safmr | 0 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,620 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | safmr | 1 | $1,800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,464 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,016 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | safmr | 2 | $2,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | safmr | 3 | $2,890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,949 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,231 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06355 | safmr | 4 | $3,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |