Composite
66.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 88.1 | 75.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.33 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 76.6 | 73.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.68 | in index |
| billing conduct | 26.5 | 29.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.12 | in index |
| staffing risk | 30.3 | 30.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 5.83 | in index |
| chow risk | 40.9 | 39.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.72 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 29.9 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 53.5 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 75.2 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 73.0 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 30.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 69.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 76.3 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 30.4 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 30.4 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | +0.30 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.64 | -0.12 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | -0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.64 | -0.18 | |
| Occupancy | 0.71 | +0.15 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.64 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.52 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.69 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 91.4 | 3.64 | 0.31 | 0.90 | 2.43 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 81.4 | 4.01 | 0.44 | 0.97 | 2.60 | 3.76 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 87.6 | 3.84 | 0.48 | 0.82 | 2.54 | 3.60 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 91.0 | 3.78 | 0.45 | 0.84 | 2.49 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 88.9 | 3.81 | 0.41 | 0.90 | 2.51 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 84.5 | 3.60 | 0.41 | 0.90 | 2.30 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 75.8 | 3.82 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 2.40 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 77.4 | 3.92 | 0.55 | 0.95 | 2.42 | 3.65 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 75.9 | 4.20 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 2.61 | 3.85 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 70.0 | 3.78 | 0.55 | 0.71 | 2.53 | 3.57 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 72.2 | 3.87 | 0.62 | 0.72 | 2.53 | 3.49 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 72.5 | 3.90 | 0.64 | 0.70 | 2.56 | 3.64 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 68.5 | 3.93 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 2.49 | 3.41 | 1.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 68.3 | 2.99 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 1.93 | 2.71 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 71.6 | 2.94 | 0.56 | 0.72 | 1.67 | 2.54 | 10.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 75.7 | 3.22 | 0.55 | 0.91 | 1.76 | 2.92 | 9.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-22 | Fine | $30,740 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0691 | Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-05-22 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2025-06-18 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-04-11 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-01-15 | Health · complaint | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-02-04 |
| 2024-12-26 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-01-22 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-09-13 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0825 | Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| 2023-06-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-07-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRANSCUM, JAMES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ESTEP, BILLIEJO | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-01-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JONCO, INC. | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERRY, MICHAEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROBIN EISENBERG 2014 FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANGSTER, TODD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WRONSKI, FRANK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FRANK WRONSKI | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 31% | 2016-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES BRANSCUM | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 31% | 2016-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEO EISENBERG | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 31% | 2016-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL PERRY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 0% | 2016-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BILLIEJO ESTEP | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-01-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TODD SANGSTER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2016-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 0 | $701 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | fmr | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 1 | $726 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | fmr | 1 | $851 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 2 | $953 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | fmr | 2 | $1,117 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,100 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | fmr | 3 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,260 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | fmr | 4 | $1,479 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,290 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26145 | acs median gross | $947 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26145 | acs recent mover gross | $909 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 0 | $815 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 1 | $685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 2 | $900 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,120 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,313 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,330 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48602 | acs median gross | $933 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48602 | acs recent mover gross | $853 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | safmr | 0 | $750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | safmr | 1 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | safmr | 2 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | safmr | 3 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,296 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48602 | safmr | 4 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |