Composite
63.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 71.9 | 67.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.59 | in index |
| staffing risk | 51.9 | 51.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.98 | in index |
| billing conduct | 42.3 | 36.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.76 | in index |
| financial risk | 37.8 | 38.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.72 | in index |
| chow risk | 73.6 | 48.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.49 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 36.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 35.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 61.2 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 38.3 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 67.4 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 51.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 40.9 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 43.8 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 67.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 67.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 51.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 51.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.40 | -0.16 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.89 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.40 | -0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NY median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.25 | 3.33 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.89 | 3.03 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.39 | 3.44 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 211.0 | 3.25 | 0.26 | 0.83 | 2.16 | 2.89 | 5.4% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 200.1 | 3.61 | 0.21 | 1.00 | 2.40 | 3.16 | 6.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 198.8 | 3.63 | 0.22 | 1.05 | 2.36 | 3.20 | 8.8% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 192.2 | 3.12 | 0.25 | 0.84 | 2.03 | 2.63 | 4.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 173.9 | 3.26 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 2.06 | 2.84 | 7.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 168.4 | 2.85 | 0.25 | 0.83 | 1.77 | 2.38 | 8.5% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 162.7 | 2.96 | 0.28 | 0.81 | 1.87 | 2.44 | 5.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 167.1 | 2.75 | 0.21 | 0.75 | 1.79 | 2.40 | 0.3% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 169.1 | 3.63 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 2.48 | 3.10 | 3.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 167.0 | 3.78 | 0.26 | 0.97 | 2.55 | 3.27 | 4.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 169.5 | 3.26 | 0.23 | 0.78 | 2.25 | 2.77 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 173.9 | 2.63 | 0.23 | 0.69 | 1.71 | 2.10 | 18.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 175.3 | 2.81 | 0.20 | 0.71 | 1.90 | 2.41 | 50.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 172.1 | 2.55 | 0.20 | 0.78 | 1.58 | 2.08 | 47.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 180.0 | 2.35 | 0.20 | 0.73 | 1.41 | 1.84 | 42.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 178.8 | 2.33 | 0.20 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 1.89 | 48.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-24 | Fine | $43,973 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-05-01 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | E | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | C | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-05-07 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-06-25 |
| 2025-05-07 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-06-25 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | C | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-10-28 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2024-12-18 |
| 2024-07-24 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-09-05 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-03-19 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-03-19 |
| 2024-01-24 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-03-04 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | B | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2023-05-01 |
| 2023-03-17 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2023-05-01 |
| 2021-05-06 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2021-06-04 |
| 2021-05-06 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2021-06-11 |
| 2021-05-06 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2021-05-07 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTTERBEIN, LAURA | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 46% | 2018-03-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ZACHER, WILLIAM | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 46% | 2018-03-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SOUTH UNION ROAD | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 32% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| 165 BH REALTY | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 23% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| 165 BH REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| GOLDMAN, DAVID | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2018-10-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SOUTH UNION ROAD HC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| LAURA OTTERBEIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 46% | 2018-03-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM ZACHER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 46% | 2018-03-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SOUTH UNION ROAD | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 32% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SOUTH UNION ROAD | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 32% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| 165 BH REALTY | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 23% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DAVID GOLDMAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 0% | 2018-10-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 165 BH REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SOUTH UNION ROAD | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | PINE FOREST CARE CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 76 | HILAIRE CARE NETWORK LLC |
| 2024-05-17 | Fairport Rehabilitation and Nursing Center | — | — | — | 196 | FAIRPORT SNF LLC |
| 2024-05-09 | MARIA REGINA REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 188 | OPTIMA CARE BRENTWOOD LLC |
| 2024-02-01 | TUPPER LAKE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | TUPPER LAKE CENTER LLC |
| 2023-08-31 | WEST VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 105 | VILLAGE ACQUISITION I LLC |
| 2023-06-23 | Crest Manor Living and Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 80 | CREST OPCO LLC |
| 2023-06-23 | East Side Nursing Home | — | — | — | 80 | EASTSIDE OPCO LLC |
| 2023-05-05 | SPRINGVALE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 200 | THE PREMIER CENTER FOR REHABILITATION OF WESTCHESTER LLC |
| 2023-04-21 | LIVINGSTON HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | LIVINGSTON TWO OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-01-12 | EDEN REHABILITATION NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | EDRNC OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-01-01 | DUNKIRK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 40 | DURNC OPERATING LLC |
| 2022-09-12 | ROSS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 135 | ROSS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 0 | $942 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | fmr | 0 | $1,105 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 1 | $916 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | fmr | 1 | $1,139 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,110 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | fmr | 2 | $1,343 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,174 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | fmr | 3 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,363 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | fmr | 4 | $1,869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,387 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 36029 | acs median gross | $1,090 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 36029 | acs recent mover gross | $1,282 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,744 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,446 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,588 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,034 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,548 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 14221 | acs median gross | $1,603 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 14221 | acs recent mover gross | $1,527 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | safmr | 0 | $1,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | safmr | 1 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,002 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,638 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | safmr | 2 | $1,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,442 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,998 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | safmr | 3 | $2,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,277 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 14221 | safmr | 4 | $2,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |