Reads as: riskier than 44.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PRICE TEDDY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ROGERS DAWN
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CANTRELL JEFFREY LEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
BOLWAHNN SHEILA
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
KISATCHIE HEALTH LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SHELTON JAMES
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MAUMALANGA HOLLY
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.37
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.47
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
137.7
3.37
0.27
0.72
2.38
3.12
0.0%
2025Q3
92
138.2
3.38
0.21
0.80
2.37
3.05
0.0%
2025Q2
91
137.5
3.41
0.20
0.92
2.29
3.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
138.5
3.44
0.14
0.98
2.32
3.27
0.0%
2024Q4
92
137.4
3.40
0.07
1.04
2.29
3.28
0.0%
2024Q3
92
139.1
3.50
0.06
1.08
2.36
3.12
0.0%
2024Q2
91
139.0
3.56
0.10
1.13
2.33
3.04
0.0%
2024Q1
91
137.5
3.63
0.12
1.13
2.38
3.10
0.0%
2023Q4
92
136.7
3.54
0.08
1.16
2.31
3.02
0.0%
2023Q3
92
126.9
3.59
0.10
1.07
2.42
2.94
0.0%
2023Q2
91
99.4
3.79
0.10
1.18
2.50
2.92
0.0%
2023Q1
90
85.0
3.72
0.08
1.00
2.63
2.76
0.0%
2022Q4
92
81.9
3.63
0.10
0.89
2.64
2.99
0.0%
2022Q3
92
69.5
3.84
0.05
1.02
2.77
3.34
0.0%
2022Q2
91
70.1
3.54
0.01
0.92
2.61
3.13
0.0%
2022Q1
90
73.8
3.07
0.01
0.92
2.14
2.78
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 3E × 5F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-30
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
F
2025-08-18
2025-07-30
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2025-08-18
2025-07-30
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
E
2025-08-18
2025-07-30
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-08-18
2025-07-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-08-18
2024-06-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-26
2024-06-26
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
E
2024-07-26
2024-06-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2024-07-26
2023-06-29
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2023-07-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GUEST HOUSE PROPERTIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2024-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GUEST HOUSE PROPERTIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2023-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
KISATCHIE HEALTH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
51%
1997-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICO, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
1997-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, FREDA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
MAUMALANGA, HOLLY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
BOLWAHNN, SHEILA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANTRELL, JEFFREY LEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1997-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK WHITNEY BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
1997-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GUEST HOUSE PROPERTIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2022-04-01
ended 2023-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
GUEST HOUSE PROPERTIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2021-04-01
ended 2022-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
GUEST HOUSE PROPERTIES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2020-04-01
ended 2021-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
FREDA ZIMMERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY MAUMALANGA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN ROGERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES SHELTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY LEE CANTRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEILA BOLWAHNN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$3,836,343
$1,570,425
—
$1,570,337
$115,782
6
propco
2024-03-31
$3,985,721
$1,738,133
—
$1,595,842
$117,943
6
propco
2023-03-31
$1,082,383
$124,583
—
$709,803
$59,596
6
propco
2022-03-31
$918,360
$94,369
—
$632,796
$50,519
6
propco
2021-03-31
$896,947
$91,455
—
$625,806
$55,005
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22015
acs median gross
0
$897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
fmr
0
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22015
acs median gross
1
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
fmr
1
$982
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22015
acs median gross
2
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
fmr
2
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22015
acs median gross
3
$1,399
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
fmr
3
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22015
acs median gross
4
$1,327
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
fmr
4
$1,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22015
acs median gross
5
$2,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
acs median gross
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22015
acs recent mover gross
$1,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
0
$1,151
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
1
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
2
$1,147
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
3
$1,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
4
$1,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs median gross
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71111
acs recent mover gross
$1,034
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 71111
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 110
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 90
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
safmr
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 110
2
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 90
2
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
safmr
2
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 110
3
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 90
3
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
safmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 110
4
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
payment standard 90
4
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71111
safmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.