Composite
84.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 84.2 | 71.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.43 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 76.4 | 72.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.63 | in index |
| billing conduct | 62.3 | 44.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.38 | in index |
| staffing risk | 35.2 | 35.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 6.77 | in index |
| chow risk | 39.6 | 37.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.57 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 44.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 50.8 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 71.0 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 7.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 72.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 35.3 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 57.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 73.6 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 72.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 35.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 35.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.45 | +0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.45 | +1.26 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.53 | -0.13 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.53 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.42 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.58 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 44.9 | 3.53 | 0.20 | 0.69 | 2.65 | 3.42 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 43.2 | 3.83 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 2.76 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 41.8 | 4.11 | 0.27 | 0.86 | 2.99 | 3.83 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 45.1 | 3.69 | 0.23 | 0.83 | 2.63 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 47.5 | 3.49 | 0.10 | 0.94 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 47.8 | 3.61 | 0.08 | 1.01 | 2.53 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 49.6 | 3.51 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 2.43 | 3.27 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 47.6 | 3.73 | 0.06 | 1.12 | 2.55 | 3.57 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 47.6 | 4.02 | 0.04 | 1.17 | 2.81 | 3.69 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 54.0 | 4.83 | 0.05 | 1.14 | 3.63 | 4.28 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 54.7 | 3.73 | 0.11 | 1.08 | 2.53 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 57.1 | 3.74 | 0.06 | 1.12 | 2.55 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 56.5 | 3.68 | 0.14 | 1.13 | 2.42 | 3.31 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 57.4 | 3.49 | 0.18 | 0.97 | 2.33 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 54.7 | 3.63 | 0.25 | 0.95 | 2.43 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 56.9 | 3.32 | 0.25 | 0.91 | 2.16 | 3.05 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Fine | $25,728 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-04-25 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-09-06 |
| 2024-08-15 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-09-06 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | E | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0603 | Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room). | J | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0808 | Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law. | D | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| 2023-01-06 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2023-02-04 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BELEW, BARBARA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2009-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BELEW, LLC | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2009-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DILKS, LLC | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2009-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DILKS, MELISHA | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2009-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BARBARA BELEW | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2009-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MELISHA DILKS | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2009-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05001 | acs median gross | 0 | $960 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05001 | fmr | 0 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05001 | acs median gross | 1 | $576 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05001 | fmr | 1 | $703 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05001 | acs median gross | 2 | $769 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05001 | fmr | 2 | $922 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05001 | acs median gross | 3 | $937 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05001 | fmr | 3 | $1,159 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05001 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,287 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05001 | fmr | 4 | $1,547 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05001 | acs median gross | $843 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05001 | acs recent mover gross | $778 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | 0 | $954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | 1 | $593 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | 2 | $780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | 3 | $968 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,319 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72160 | acs median gross | $849 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72160 | acs recent mover gross | $753 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | safmr | 0 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $729 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | safmr | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | safmr | 2 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | safmr | 3 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,404 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72160 | safmr | 4 | $1,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |