Reads as: riskier than 21.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.12
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.88
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.08
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.14
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
69.8
4.12
0.88
1.01
2.23
4.08
0.0%
2025Q3
92
68.0
4.22
0.91
1.10
2.22
4.10
0.0%
2025Q2
91
65.9
4.23
0.90
1.15
2.19
4.20
0.0%
2025Q1
90
68.3
4.23
0.92
1.08
2.23
4.13
0.0%
2024Q4
92
70.1
4.09
0.91
1.02
2.16
4.03
0.0%
2024Q3
92
69.5
4.09
0.81
1.09
2.19
4.00
0.0%
2024Q2
91
60.6
4.61
1.02
1.15
2.44
4.45
0.0%
2024Q1
91
58.8
3.98
0.72
1.15
2.10
3.90
0.0%
2023Q4
92
56.1
4.13
0.81
1.17
2.15
3.96
0.0%
2023Q3
92
57.6
3.99
0.78
1.14
2.07
3.82
0.0%
2023Q2
91
58.4
4.00
0.86
1.09
2.05
3.82
0.0%
2023Q1
90
59.8
3.88
0.84
0.97
2.06
3.82
0.3%
2022Q4
92
59.5
3.78
0.71
1.02
2.04
3.78
7.7%
2022Q3
92
58.5
3.76
0.91
0.85
2.00
3.82
9.0%
2022Q2
91
54.3
4.23
1.06
0.92
2.25
4.14
6.2%
2022Q1
90
43.0
4.43
0.99
1.03
2.41
4.41
5.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
3
D × 3
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-06-06
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-06
2025-02-27
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-03-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
BENTLEY, SARAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTENSEN, PAMELA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CUNLIFFE, TERRI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, KARA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
EASTBURG, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-01-31
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON, REBEKAH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOLT, JODY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
HOLT, JODY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KINCANNON, KURT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANLOVE, MATT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
OXENDALE, ROGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RINARD, DALE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANOVER, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WENRICH, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW VANOVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DALE RINARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID ERICKSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-01-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JODY HOLT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JODY HOLT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN WENRICH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARA DAVIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KURT KINCANNON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK EASTBURG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATT MANLOVE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA CHRISTENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REBEKAH ERICKSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MARTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER OXENDALE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH BENTLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRI CUNLIFFE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-03-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,144,885
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-09-30
$843,146
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-09-30
$840,036
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$731,272
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-09-30
$759,515
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27053
acs median gross
0
$1,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
1
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
2
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
3
$1,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
5
$1,999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs median gross
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs recent mover gross
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs median gross
1
$1,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs median gross
2
$1,588
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs median gross
3
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs median gross
4
$2,564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs median gross
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55422
acs recent mover gross
$1,930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55422
payment standard 110
0
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 90
0
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
safmr
0
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 110
3
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 90
3
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
safmr
3
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 110
4
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
payment standard 90
4
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55422
safmr
4
$2,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.