Composite
21.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 71.4 | 66.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.48 | in index |
| financial risk | 66.1 | 56.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.25 | in index |
| chow risk | 26.8 | 25.8 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.09 | in index |
| staffing risk | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 1.71 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 26.5 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 56.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 66.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 75.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 55.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.3 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.3 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 66.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 9.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.28 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.43 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.20 | -0.13 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.63 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.43 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 5.20 | -0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.43 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.99 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.61 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 108.0 | 4.43 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 2.97 | 3.99 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 104.5 | 4.61 | 0.96 | 0.57 | 3.08 | 4.20 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 105.1 | 4.48 | 1.03 | 0.54 | 2.91 | 4.00 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 103.1 | 4.52 | 0.96 | 0.67 | 2.89 | 4.11 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 104.7 | 4.35 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 2.99 | 4.05 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 107.5 | 4.39 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 3.04 | 4.04 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 105.4 | 4.36 | 0.83 | 0.54 | 2.98 | 3.99 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 106.9 | 4.25 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 3.09 | 3.86 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 114.9 | 4.30 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 2.95 | 3.95 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 117.8 | 4.25 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 2.89 | 3.93 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 125.8 | 4.29 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 2.83 | 3.88 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 130.3 | 4.20 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 2.76 | 3.90 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 139.8 | 4.21 | 0.71 | 0.63 | 2.86 | 3.88 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 148.7 | 3.96 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 2.69 | 3.68 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 151.6 | 4.25 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 2.77 | 4.01 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 156.1 | 4.14 | 0.69 | 0.72 | 2.73 | 3.93 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-05 | Fine | $8,018 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2026-04-10 |
| 2026-01-16 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2026-02-03 |
| 2026-01-16 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | D | 2026-02-03 |
| 2026-01-16 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2026-02-03 |
| 2025-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0620 | Not require residents to give up Medicare or Medicaid benefits, or pay privately as a condition of admission; and must tell residents what care they do not provide. | D | 2025-12-18 |
| 2025-09-03 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-03-06 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-03-06 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-10-16 |
| 2024-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-08-16 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-04-05 |
| 2024-02-14 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-03-08 |
| 2023-12-22 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2023-09-19 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-11-15 |
| 2023-09-19 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-11-15 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VETERANS HOME OF CALIFORNIA-CHULA VISTA | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2000-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KREISHER, TIMOTHY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MILLER, JIMMY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2008-09-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WAGNER, PAUL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2004-07-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2000-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARD THOMAS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-06-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,761 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | fmr | 0 | $2,288 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | fmr | 1 | $2,459 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,290 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | fmr | 2 | $3,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,826 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | fmr | 3 | $3,998 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,451 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | fmr | 4 | $4,845 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | 5 | $3,501 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06073 | acs median gross | $2,246 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06073 | acs recent mover gross | $2,729 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,772 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,648 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,125 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,296 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,942 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,677 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 91911 | acs median gross | $2,078 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 91911 | acs recent mover gross | $2,276 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,365 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | safmr | 0 | $2,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,541 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,079 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | safmr | 1 | $2,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,102 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,538 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | safmr | 2 | $2,820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,136 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,384 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | safmr | 3 | $3,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $5,005 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $4,095 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 91911 | safmr | 4 | $4,550 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |