Reads as: riskier than 84.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
22
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+43.1 vs natl
MILLER STEPHEN
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.0 vs natl
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT IX LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BARDOCZI STEPHEN
15 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
BARNEY LEIGH
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
DAVIS DAVID
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
119 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
69 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
95 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
43 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
42 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
TRILOGY HEALTH SERVICES LLC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
TRILOGY PROPCO FINANCE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
CASTETTER ANDREA
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
BRANDT JOHN
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
MILLER STEPHEN
20 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.72
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.75
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.71
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.9
2.72
0.31
0.84
1.56
2.75
0.0%
2025Q3
92
47.4
2.96
0.48
0.73
1.75
2.90
0.0%
2025Q2
91
43.2
3.22
0.64
0.76
1.83
2.95
0.0%
2025Q1
90
47.1
2.97
0.85
0.81
1.31
2.89
0.0%
2024Q4
92
45.6
3.25
0.77
0.92
1.57
3.00
0.0%
2024Q3
92
46.6
3.18
0.41
0.80
1.97
3.17
0.0%
2024Q2
91
47.2
3.04
0.44
0.92
1.68
3.19
0.0%
2024Q1
91
48.1
3.06
0.55
0.68
1.83
2.95
0.0%
2023Q4
92
47.2
3.39
0.66
0.72
2.01
3.48
0.0%
2023Q3
92
47.4
3.58
0.61
0.84
2.13
3.51
0.0%
2023Q2
91
47.7
3.33
0.70
0.93
1.70
3.06
0.0%
2023Q1
90
47.1
3.59
0.62
0.95
2.02
3.44
0.0%
2022Q4
92
47.4
3.31
0.54
0.97
1.79
3.17
0.0%
2022Q3
92
46.3
3.34
0.51
1.15
1.68
3.11
0.0%
2022Q2
91
47.4
3.17
0.53
1.10
1.54
3.03
0.0%
2022Q1
90
41.1
3.63
0.50
1.55
1.59
3.25
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 12E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-07-30
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-07-31
2025-07-30
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-06-06
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-04-07
2024-12-18
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-01-07
2024-07-22
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-08-07
2024-07-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-08-07
2023-12-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-11-22
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-10-15
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-15
2023-06-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-12
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-12
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-12
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2023-07-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARDOCZI, STEPHEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAYSTON, BRETT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRAND, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRAVERMAN, KELLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASTETTER, ANDREA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, DAVID
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAWKINS, CLAUDE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
HORNBECKER, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, STEPHANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
REAGAN, JULIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
SALCEDO, FEDERICO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
SELLERS, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-20
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTH SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT IX LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OF FLOYD, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OF FLOYD, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPCO FINANCE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEORGE POGAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2002-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY BRAVERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN BARDOCZI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2013-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA CASTETTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETT BAYSTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAUDE HAWKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BRAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HORNBECKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,316,481
—
—
$659,008
$297,236
4
—
2023-12-31
$2,113,961
—
—
$642,488
$276,356
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,815,108
—
—
$583,402
$229,200
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,839,629
—
—
$608,561
$223,022
3
—
2020-12-31
$1,847,324
—
—
$764,688
$233,616
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18043
acs median gross
0
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18043
acs median gross
1
$880
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
fmr
1
$1,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18043
acs median gross
2
$1,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
fmr
2
$1,272
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18043
acs median gross
3
$1,185
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
fmr
3
$1,625
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18043
acs median gross
4
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
fmr
4
$1,891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18043
acs median gross
5
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
acs median gross
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18043
acs recent mover gross
$989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
0
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
1
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
2
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
3
$1,215
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
4
$785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
5
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs median gross
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47150
acs recent mover gross
$989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47150
payment standard 110
0
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 90
0
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
safmr
0
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 110
1
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 90
1
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
safmr
1
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 110
2
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 90
2
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
safmr
2
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 110
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 90
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
safmr
3
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 110
4
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
payment standard 90
4
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47150
safmr
4
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.