Composite
42.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 94.0 | 91.9 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 40.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 5.40 | in index |
| staffing risk | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 0.04 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 91.9 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 0.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 91.9 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 91.9 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 10.05 | -1.39 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.37 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 22.00 | +0.36 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 10.05 | -2.87 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 22.00 | -2.65 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.75 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 11.09 | -0.63 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 4.00 | -0.28 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 10.05 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 4.41 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 9.29 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 10.34 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 58.1 | 10.05 | 4.41 | 4.67 | 0.96 | 9.29 | 0.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 59.4 | 9.67 | 3.88 | 4.76 | 1.03 | 8.85 | 0.9% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 55.8 | 10.46 | 4.17 | 4.92 | 1.37 | 9.28 | 0.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 52.6 | 10.65 | 4.06 | 5.19 | 1.40 | 10.04 | 0.2% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 54.1 | 10.52 | 3.80 | 5.26 | 1.46 | 9.62 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 55.9 | 9.83 | 3.50 | 5.05 | 1.27 | 9.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 52.3 | 10.53 | 3.61 | 5.53 | 1.39 | 9.72 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | Fine | $65,521 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-12-08 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-07-02 | Fine | $17,572 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | L | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-03-07 | Health · complaint | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | F | 2026-03-06 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | J | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | E | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-02-09 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-12-08 | Health | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | E | 2026-01-12 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-11-24 |
| 2025-11-14 | Health · complaint | F0940 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members. | D | 2025-11-24 |
| 2024-12-18 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-01-02 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | D | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-11-08 | Health | F0945 | Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program. | F | 2024-12-05 |
| 2024-10-23 | Health · complaint | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-09-25 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-07-02 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-07-22 |
| 2024-02-27 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-03-21 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | D | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-12-01 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-01-09 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-08-04 |
| 2023-07-12 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-04 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,647 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,674 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,696 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,886 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90650 | acs median gross | $2,090 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 90650 | acs recent mover gross | $2,459 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,211 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,809 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | safmr | 0 | $2,010 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,475 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,025 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | safmr | 1 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | safmr | 2 | $2,800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,905 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,195 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | safmr | 3 | $3,550 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,345 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,555 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90650 | safmr | 4 | $3,950 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |