Composite
75.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 81.4 | 68.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.78 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 75.3 | 71.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.38 | in index |
| staffing risk | 64.2 | 64.2 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.35 | in index |
| billing conduct | 21.8 | 26.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.03 | in index |
| chow risk | 40.6 | 46.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.68 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 7 chains | RUBENSTEIN DAVID | 31 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 26.7 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.3 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 69.8 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 68.2 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 71.4 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 64.2 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 87.9 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.9 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.4 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 68.8 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.3 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 64.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 64.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 9.62 | -0.91 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.32 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.25 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 9.62 | -0.14 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.30 | -0.14 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.07 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.04 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.08 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 97.1 | 3.07 | 0.23 | 0.75 | 2.09 | 3.04 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 96.7 | 3.09 | 0.27 | 0.74 | 2.08 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 92.7 | 3.21 | 0.21 | 0.81 | 2.19 | 3.25 | 3.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 95.3 | 3.04 | 0.19 | 0.80 | 2.05 | 3.03 | 6.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 93.5 | 3.09 | 0.16 | 0.72 | 2.22 | 3.14 | 1.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 89.3 | 2.95 | 0.19 | 0.67 | 2.09 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 86.8 | 3.16 | 0.23 | 0.63 | 2.30 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 90.1 | 3.13 | 0.26 | 0.70 | 2.18 | 3.09 | 0.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 87.0 | 3.13 | 0.25 | 0.69 | 2.18 | 3.06 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.9 | 3.06 | 0.27 | 0.48 | 2.31 | 3.24 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 89.5 | 3.01 | 0.19 | 0.64 | 2.18 | 3.22 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 87.2 | 3.08 | 0.18 | 0.88 | 2.03 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 92.3 | 2.95 | 0.16 | 0.84 | 1.94 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 90.1 | 2.85 | 0.18 | 0.87 | 1.79 | 2.93 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 72.6 | 2.87 | 0.20 | 0.84 | 1.83 | 2.87 | 4.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 65.7 | 2.83 | 0.26 | 0.86 | 1.70 | 2.71 | 30.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 | Fine | $13,627 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | J | 2025-01-23 |
| 2024-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-23 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health · complaint | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | D | 2024-08-19 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-08-19 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0563 | Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0624 | Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | C | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | E | 2023-12-27 |
| 2023-10-06 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-12-04 |
| 2021-12-16 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2021-12-31 |
| 2021-12-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-01-06 |
| 2021-12-16 | Health | F0886 | Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff. | D | 2021-12-31 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| 2018-09-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2018-10-12 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GL VIRGINIA HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2016-12-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GENTRY, BOYD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2016-12-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RUBENSTEIN, DAVID | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2016-12-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRIO HEALTH CARE - EAST, LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-05-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRIO HEALTHCARE INVESTORS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2016-12-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRIO HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-12-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VIERS, ROBERT | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-10-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID RUBENSTEIN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 57% | 2016-12-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BOYD GENTRY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 43% | 2016-12-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT VIERS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-10-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-16 | — | GL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE LLC | GGNSC GALAX LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51640 | fmr | 0 | $765 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51640 | acs median gross | 1 | $564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51640 | fmr | 1 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51640 | acs median gross | 2 | $733 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51640 | fmr | 2 | $914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51640 | acs median gross | 3 | $990 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51640 | fmr | 3 | $1,271 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51640 | fmr | 4 | $1,481 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51640 | acs median gross | $743 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24333 | acs median gross | 1 | $631 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24333 | acs median gross | 2 | $736 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24333 | acs median gross | 3 | $860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24333 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,115 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24333 | acs median gross | $763 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24333 | acs recent mover gross | $873 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | safmr | 0 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | safmr | 2 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,419 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,161 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | safmr | 3 | $1,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,595 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,305 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24333 | safmr | 4 | $1,450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |