Composite
62.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 90.5 | 78.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.88 | in index |
| staffing risk | 67.7 | 67.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.02 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 54.6 | 44.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.60 | in index |
| chow risk | 55.8 | 54.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.44 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +30.6 vs natl | FLANAGAN MICHAEL | 19 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 5 chains | FLANAGAN MICHAEL | 17 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 4 chains | MATHEW STANLEY | 12 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 47% fined | FLANAGAN MICHAEL | 19 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 83.0 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 78.1 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 44.3 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 67.7 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.6 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 79.3 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 44.2 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 44.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 67.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 67.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.21 | -1.34 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.83 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.12 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.62 | +0.53 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.83 | -0.45 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.96 | +0.42 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.21 | -0.22 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.02 | 3.15 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.67 | 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.84 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.09 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 27.4 | 3.02 | 0.67 | 0.23 | 2.12 | 2.84 | 3.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 29.2 | 2.80 | 0.71 | 0.20 | 1.89 | 2.40 | 1.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 31.3 | 2.95 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 2.13 | 2.78 | 0.4% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 35.8 | 2.30 | 0.35 | 0.41 | 1.54 | 2.03 | 2.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 37.9 | 2.06 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 1.48 | 1.81 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 37.0 | 1.99 | 0.13 | 0.43 | 1.43 | 1.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 33.9 | 1.85 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 1.29 | 1.67 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 27.8 | 2.26 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 1.42 | 2.02 | 0.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 26.1 | 2.11 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 1.27 | 1.84 | 4.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 25.4 | 2.53 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 1.53 | 2.09 | 0.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 23.4 | 2.69 | 0.59 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 2.12 | 4.5% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 22.5 | 2.79 | 0.86 | 0.35 | 1.58 | 2.34 | 14.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 22.8 | 3.06 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 1.77 | 2.76 | 37.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 24.6 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 0.84 | 1.88 | 2.83 | 31.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 24.4 | 2.87 | 0.36 | 0.63 | 1.88 | 2.81 | 60.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 26.8 | 2.81 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 1.93 | 2.81 | 70.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-10-21 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-12-10 |
| 2025-05-14 | Health · complaint | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2025-06-03 |
| 2025-02-11 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2025-03-13 |
| 2024-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0710 | Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-09-27 |
| 2024-09-09 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2024-09-27 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-12-20 |
| 2023-11-21 | Health · complaint | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | 2023-12-20 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLACK HAWK HEALTHCARE, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-05-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EVEREST MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EVEREST MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLANAGAN, MICHAEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HAWKEYE INVESTORS, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-05-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MATHEW, STANLEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NCI HAWKEYE HOLDINGS, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-05-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RIVERVIEW PROPERTY HOLDINGS, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-05-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VONDAL, BROOKE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2023-12-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WERTHEIM, BRUCE | INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2021-05-14 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2021-05-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRUCE WERTHEIM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2021-05-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 17990 SPENCER ROAD REALTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| 17990 SPENCER ROAD REALTY LLC | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-05-13 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| JENNA SCHOFIELD | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-05-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-14 | — | RIVERVIEW SNF OPERATOR LLC | RIVERVIEW MANOR HEALTHCARE LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | St Luke's Regional Medical Center SNF | — | — | — | 20 | NORTHWEST IOWA HOSPITAL CORPORATION |
| 2025-08-01 | Crystal Heights Care Center | — | — | — | 72 | CANFIELD RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | AMS Memorial-Greene | — | — | — | 31 | AMS MEMORIAL-GREENE LLC |
| 2025-02-05 | Chapters Living of Council Bluffs | — | — | — | 102 | CHAPTERS COUNCIL BLUFFS OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Osage Rehab and Health Care Center | — | — | — | 46 | OPCO OSAGE IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Iowa City Rehab & Health Care | — | — | — | 89 | OPCO IOWA CITY IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Accura Healthcare of Creston | — | — | — | 31 | ACCURA HEALTHCARE OF CRESTON LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Casa De Paz Health Care Center | — | — | — | 71 | OPCO 19TH ST SIOUX CITY IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Pleasant Acres Care Center | — | — | — | 46 | OPCO HULL IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Cedar Falls Health Care Center | — | — | — | 70 | OPCO CEDAR FALLS IA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Accura Healthcare of Onawa | — | — | — | 46 | ACCURA HEALTHCARE OF ONAWA LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Grundy Care Center | — | — | — | 40 | OPCO GRUNDY CENTER IA LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 0 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | fmr | 0 | $817 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 1 | $819 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | fmr | 1 | $928 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,031 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | fmr | 2 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,347 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | fmr | 3 | $1,498 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | fmr | 4 | $1,819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,250 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 19163 | acs median gross | $1,005 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 19163 | acs recent mover gross | $1,181 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | safmr | 0 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $972 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | safmr | 1 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,463 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | safmr | 2 | $1,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,575 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | safmr | 3 | $1,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,908 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 52767 | safmr | 4 | $2,120 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |