50 Sanderson Lane, Coldwater, MI 49036 · CCN 235008
Composite
5.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
114
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 5.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.33
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.66
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.13
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.41
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.5
4.33
0.66
0.53
3.13
4.13
0.0%
2025Q3
92
107.8
4.34
0.66
0.50
3.17
4.04
0.0%
2025Q2
91
105.9
4.24
0.62
0.46
3.17
4.04
0.0%
2025Q1
90
108.8
4.04
0.64
0.44
2.97
3.91
0.0%
2024Q4
92
104.5
4.20
0.69
0.43
3.08
4.00
0.0%
2024Q3
92
99.3
3.90
0.61
0.39
2.91
3.74
0.0%
2024Q2
91
105.8
3.92
0.70
0.54
2.68
3.73
0.0%
2024Q1
91
106.4
4.04
0.84
0.49
2.70
3.94
0.0%
2023Q4
92
106.6
3.81
0.77
0.54
2.50
3.71
0.0%
2023Q3
92
102.0
3.80
0.72
0.59
2.49
3.62
0.0%
2023Q2
91
95.2
3.91
0.74
0.63
2.55
3.69
0.0%
2023Q1
90
89.8
4.04
0.79
0.60
2.66
3.74
0.0%
2022Q4
92
83.6
4.26
0.93
0.58
2.76
3.90
0.0%
2022Q3
92
83.6
4.29
0.81
0.68
2.81
3.92
0.0%
2022Q2
91
83.1
4.25
0.73
0.80
2.72
3.87
0.0%
2022Q1
90
82.9
4.26
0.84
0.74
2.68
3.81
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
C × 1D × 12E × 5F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-27
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-09-24
2025-08-27
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2025-09-24
2025-08-27
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2025-09-24
2025-08-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-09-24
2025-06-18
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-07-05
2024-09-06
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-15
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-09-13
2024-08-15
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-09-13
2024-08-15
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-09-13
2024-08-15
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-09-13
2024-08-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-09-13
2023-11-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-12-08
2023-11-15
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-08
2023-06-28
Health
F0572
Give residents a notice of rights, rules, services and charges.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0574
The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COWDEN, DONNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROPER, SARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SABAITIS, JAYNE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
WEIGT, STEVEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITAKER, CHARLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
WHITAKER, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WORDEN, JESSICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
ZIERLE, ASHLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
JAYNE SABAITIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2010-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY ZIERLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES WHITAKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES WHITAKER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA COWDEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA WORDEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA ROPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN WEIGT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26023
acs median gross
0
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
fmr
0
$689
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26023
acs median gross
1
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
fmr
1
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26023
acs median gross
2
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26023
acs median gross
3
$1,094
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
fmr
3
$1,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26023
acs median gross
4
$1,311
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
fmr
4
$1,329
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26023
acs median gross
5
$1,284
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
acs median gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26023
acs recent mover gross
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
0
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
1
$910
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
2
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
3
$1,096
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
4
$1,650
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
5
$1,345
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs median gross
$967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49036
acs recent mover gross
$1,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49036
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 110
3
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 90
3
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
safmr
3
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 110
4
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
payment standard 90
4
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49036
safmr
4
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.