Reads as: riskier than 84.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
13
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
SINGER MEIR
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
CENTENNIAL I TBD HOLDCO LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
TURPEN MARK
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
33 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SINGER MEIR
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
TURPEN MARK
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
GOTTLIEB REFOEL
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
56% fined
SINGER MEIR
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
GOTTS CONSULTING COLORADO LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CENTENNIAL MN TR I
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CENTENNIAL YF TRUST I
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CENTENNIAL I TBD HOLDCO LLC
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.56
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.33
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.41
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.62
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.6
2.56
0.33
0.53
1.70
2.41
2.7%
2025Q3
92
51.8
2.59
0.30
0.61
1.68
2.43
1.2%
2025Q2
91
54.3
2.60
0.51
0.33
1.76
2.47
8.4%
2025Q1
90
55.3
2.49
0.62
0.18
1.69
2.36
16.2%
2024Q4
92
56.3
2.38
0.61
0.22
1.55
2.39
19.4%
2024Q3
92
59.8
2.36
0.62
0.27
1.47
2.27
11.8%
2024Q2
91
60.3
2.44
0.36
0.36
1.73
2.38
0.0%
2024Q1
91
57.9
2.36
0.37
0.22
1.77
2.24
0.0%
2023Q4
92
56.8
2.65
0.35
0.18
2.11
2.46
3.3%
2023Q3
92
62.0
2.49
0.40
0.17
1.92
2.26
1.1%
2023Q2
91
56.6
2.70
0.44
0.25
2.01
2.34
0.0%
2023Q1
90
52.5
2.87
0.42
0.38
2.07
2.53
0.1%
2022Q4
92
51.3
2.75
0.42
0.44
1.90
2.60
7.8%
2022Q3
92
52.5
2.59
0.40
0.38
1.81
2.49
2.8%
2022Q2
91
54.4
2.68
0.42
0.34
1.91
2.50
4.5%
2022Q1
90
53.9
2.37
0.52
0.28
1.56
2.23
4.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2025-09-11
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2025-09-25
2025-09-11
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-09-29
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-07-11
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-11
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-07-11
2020-02-27
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-27
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
G
2020-03-20
2020-02-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2020-03-20
2019-01-10
Health
F0620
Not require residents to give up Medicare or Medicaid benefits, or pay privately as a condition of admission; and must tell residents what care they do not provide.
C
2019-02-01
2019-01-10
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2019-02-01
2019-01-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2019-01-29
2019-01-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-02-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THE VALLEY REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
7%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL I TBD HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL M TRUST II
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL MN TR I
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL MS TRUST I
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL YF TRUST I
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOTTLIEB, REFOEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOTTS CONSULTING COLORADO LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONARCO, ASHLEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
MONARCO, ASHLEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-23
current
pecos_ownership
SINGER, MEIR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TURPEN, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
TURPEN, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-23
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL III COLORADO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REFOEL GOTTLIEB
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMSSAH NON- GRANTOR TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHLEE MONARCO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHLEE MONARCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK TURPEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK TURPEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEIR SINGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,212,009
—
—
—
$104,837
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,140,157
—
—
—
$44,367
1
—
2022-12-31
$133,897
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-08-31
$149,864
—
—
—
$56,674
5
—
2021-12-31
$243,736
—
—
—
$95,228
2
—
2020-12-31
$245,618
—
—
—
$124,812
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2022-09-01
—
THE VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08083
acs median gross
0
$731
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08083
fmr
0
$852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08083
acs median gross
1
$829
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08083
fmr
1
$906
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08083
acs median gross
2
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08083
fmr
2
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08083
acs median gross
3
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08083
fmr
3
$1,569
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08083
fmr
4
$1,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08083
acs median gross
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08083
acs recent mover gross
$1,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81328
acs median gross
1
$846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81328
acs median gross
2
$1,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81328
acs median gross
3
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81328
acs median gross
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81328
acs recent mover gross
$2,056
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 81328
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 110
1
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 90
1
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
safmr
1
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 110
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 90
2
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
safmr
2
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 110
3
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 90
3
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
safmr
3
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 110
4
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
payment standard 90
4
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81328
safmr
4
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.