Composite
34.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 55.7 | 45.6 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 16.71 | in index |
| staffing risk | 63.8 | 63.8 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 15.95 | in index |
| chow risk | 38.9 | 45.8 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 5.84 | in index |
| financial risk | 14.1 | 22.7 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 4.23 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 20.4 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 71.2 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 22.7 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 45.6 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 63.8 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 87.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.8 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 26.7 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 45.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 45.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.8 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 8.33 | -1.04 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.75 | -0.16 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.12 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 8.33 | -0.17 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.76 | -0.08 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.08 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.00 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.11 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 87.3 | 3.08 | 0.26 | 0.76 | 2.06 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 88.4 | 3.07 | 0.32 | 0.76 | 1.99 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 95.2 | 2.91 | 0.27 | 0.77 | 1.87 | 2.75 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 100.2 | 2.77 | 0.25 | 0.73 | 1.79 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 94.8 | 3.01 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 1.94 | 2.95 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 96.5 | 3.08 | 0.31 | 0.78 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 98.0 | 3.00 | 0.27 | 0.71 | 2.02 | 2.89 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 100.1 | 2.79 | 0.26 | 0.70 | 1.84 | 2.68 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 96.9 | 2.81 | 0.23 | 0.68 | 1.89 | 2.76 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 92.7 | 2.91 | 0.28 | 0.66 | 1.97 | 2.86 | 0.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 95.1 | 2.74 | 0.31 | 0.65 | 1.79 | 2.65 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 93.1 | 2.76 | 0.23 | 0.79 | 1.74 | 2.63 | 4.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 83.7 | 3.10 | 0.26 | 0.84 | 2.01 | 3.00 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 83.7 | 3.13 | 0.28 | 0.82 | 2.02 | 2.92 | 2.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 89.2 | 2.37 | 0.19 | 0.54 | 1.65 | 2.09 | 5.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 90.8 | 2.55 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 1.78 | 2.27 | 12.9% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-01 | Fine | $29,488 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2025-09-22 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-09-22 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-10-21 |
| 2024-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2024-10-21 |
| 2024-06-17 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-06-24 |
| 2024-02-08 | Health · complaint | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-02-08 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-21 |
| 2023-10-16 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-10-27 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | F | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-09-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-11-14 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2019-12-09 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | F | 2019-12-09 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2019-12-02 |
| 2019-09-12 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2019-12-02 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ R&R HOLDING COMPANY LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CANDLEWOOD PROPCO | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CANDLEWOOD PROPCO | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| EXTENDED OHIO LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2018-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DIPASQUA, JASON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FISHMAN, SHMUEL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AJ R&R HOLDCO PROPCO | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| JASON DIPASQUA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 50% | 2018-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHMUEL FISHMAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 50% | 2018-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARK NEUMAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2018-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YISRAEL FRIEDMAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2018-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-01 | — | AJ CANDLEWOOD PARK OPCO LLC | BELMORE LEASING CO LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 0 | $792 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 0 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 1 | $859 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 1 | $1,058 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,106 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 2 | $1,279 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,290 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 3 | $1,646 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,442 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 4 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,548 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | $1,060 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39035 | acs recent mover gross | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | 1 | $506 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | 2 | $829 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,261 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,397 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | 5 | $793 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44112 | acs median gross | $812 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44112 | acs recent mover gross | $817 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | safmr | 0 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $979 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $801 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | safmr | 1 | $890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $972 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | safmr | 2 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,251 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | safmr | 3 | $1,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44112 | safmr | 4 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |