Screener / 105854

WESTMINSTER OAKS

snfFL

4449 MEANDERING WAY, TALLAHASSEE, FL 32308 · CCN 105854 · chain WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC

Composite

24.6 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

120

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 24.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model6 Components17 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies4 Licensure0 Ownership35 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent36

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
state reg risk	84.5	23.0	0.30	0.1875	15.84	in index
billing conduct	76.2	50.7	0.30	0.1875	14.29	in index
staffing risk	30.3	30.4	0.25	0.1563	4.73	in index
financial risk	7.3	16.3	0.30	0.1875	1.37	in index
chow risk	11.6	14.7	0.15	0.0938	1.09	in index
regulatory risk	5.5	3.4	0.30	0.1875	1.03	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	50.7	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	24.6	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	4.8	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	16.3	A	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.5	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	0.3	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	3.4	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	30.4	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
state reg risk	23.0	A	v0.5	default · in composite
financial risk	51.1	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	31.1	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	32.7	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	20.3	A	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	3.4	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	3.4	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	30.4	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	30.4	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

0.3%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

45.3

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	-1.24
Occupancy	0.94	-0.71
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	2.00	-0.12
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.65	-0.12

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.5%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

74.6

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	+1.62
Deficiencies, last 12 months	2.00	+1.06
Occupancy	0.94	-0.81
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.65	-0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.11

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	FL median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.65	3.42	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.60	0.45	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.58	3.31	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.67	3.48	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	113.0	3.65	0.60	0.57	2.48	3.58	0.0%
2025Q3	92	112.1	3.56	0.56	0.57	2.43	3.47	0.0%
2025Q2	91	113.0	3.58	0.63	0.52	2.43	3.45	0.0%
2025Q1	90	111.7	3.66	0.66	0.48	2.52	3.51	0.0%
2024Q4	92	111.3	3.65	0.64	0.46	2.55	3.51	0.0%
2024Q3	92	113.8	3.64	0.54	0.55	2.55	3.49	0.0%
2024Q2	91	109.2	3.63	0.50	0.59	2.53	3.52	0.0%
2024Q1	91	115.1	3.56	0.50	0.55	2.51	3.42	0.0%
2023Q4	92	110.3	3.61	0.46	0.63	2.52	3.46	0.0%
2023Q3	92	113.9	2.68	0.55	0.49	1.65	2.44	0.0%
2023Q2	91	114.5	2.48	0.51	0.47	1.49	2.23	0.1%
2023Q1	90	115.6	3.42	0.49	0.42	2.52	3.35	0.1%
2022Q4	92	114.2	3.44	0.47	0.39	2.58	3.33	0.0%
2022Q3	92	113.6	3.58	0.48	0.48	2.63	3.48	5.6%
2022Q2	91	111.3	3.63	0.37	0.66	2.60	3.46	14.6%
2022Q1	90	102.0	3.65	0.48	0.54	2.62	3.40	3.3%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 4

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2025-08-14	Health	F0656	Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.	D	2025-09-19
2025-08-14	Health	F0657	Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.	D	2025-09-19
2024-05-22	Health	F0851	Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.	D	2024-06-23
2024-05-22	Health	F0887	Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.	D	2024-06-23

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
BELL, SCOTT	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-16	current	pecos_ownership
BELL, SCOTT	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2022-08-01	current	pecos_ownership
BELL, WILLIAM	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	current	pecos_ownership
DEBEVOISE, JOHN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
DODDRIDGE, DONALD	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
DYE, STEPHEN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	current	pecos_ownership
EARLY, MARY ELLEN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
HILLENMEYER, JOHN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	current	pecos_ownership
HULL, WILLIAM	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
KEITH, HENRY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2009-08-01	current	pecos_ownership
KUTAC, KRISTIN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
MADDUX, CARLEN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
MOCK, JEFFREY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
RAMSEY, JOHN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
RUST, CASEY	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2022-12-01	current	pecos_ownership
RUST, CASEY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-16	current	pecos_ownership
SHELLEY, LINDA	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2020-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	1995-08-18	current	pecos_ownership
CARLEN MADDUX	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JEFFREY MOCK	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOHN DEBEVOISE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOHN RAMSEY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LINDA SHELLEY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	0%	2020-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CASEY RUST	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-16	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CASEY RUST	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2022-12-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DONALD DODDRIDGE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
HENRY KEITH	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2009-08-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOHN HILLENMEYER	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
KRISTIN KUTAC	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MARY ELLEN EARLY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SCOTT BELL	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-04-16	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SCOTT BELL	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2022-08-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
STEPHEN DYE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BELL	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2009-08-19	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
WILLIAM HULL	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2025-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2025-03-31	$4,022,604	—	$2,759,642	—	—	3	—
2024-03-31	$3,480,207	—	$2,307,082	—	—	3	—
2023-03-31	$3,185,214	—	$2,032,834	—	—	3	—
2022-03-31	$2,865,717	—	$1,807,703	—	—	3	—
2021-03-31	$2,370,101	—	$1,539,832	—	—	3	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — FL snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-02-01	MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	180	MARIANNA REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC
2024-11-20	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS	—	—	—	117	LP SNF OPERATIONS LLC
2024-11-01	GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT	—	—	—	75	LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC
2024-09-19	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA	—	—	—	118	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA OPCO LLC
2024-08-01	PENINSULA HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	PENINSULA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	BAYONET POINT HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	LIVING CENTER OF BAYONET POINT BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	KISSIMMEE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	KISSIMMEE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER WEST ALTAMONTE	—	—	—	116	WEST ALTAMONTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW SARASOTA	—	—	—	81	SARASOTA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE	—	—	—	167	NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-09	WATERS EDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	36	SANDHILL COVE LLC
2024-07-01	RIVERWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	RIVERWOOD NURSING SNF LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 12073	acs median gross	0	$1,053	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	fmr	0	$1,097	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073	acs median gross	1	$1,118	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	fmr	1	$1,204	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073	acs median gross	2	$1,305	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	fmr	2	$1,352	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073	acs median gross	3	$1,487	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	fmr	3	$1,674	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073	acs median gross	4	$1,486	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	fmr	4	$1,790	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12073	acs median gross	5	$944	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	acs median gross		$1,291	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12073	acs recent mover gross		$1,435	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	0	$1,867	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	1	$1,297	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	2	$1,361	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	3	$1,657	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	4	$2,368	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross	5	$927	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs median gross		$1,407	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32308	acs recent mover gross		$1,719	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32308	payment standard 110	0	$1,287	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 90	0	$1,053	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	safmr	0	$1,170	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 110	1	$1,408	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 90	1	$1,152	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	safmr	1	$1,280	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 110	2	$1,584	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 90	2	$1,296	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	safmr	2	$1,440	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 110	3	$1,958	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 90	3	$1,602	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	safmr	3	$1,780	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 110	4	$2,101	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	payment standard 90	4	$1,719	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32308	safmr	4	$1,910	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.