Reads as: riskier than 70.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
56% fined
BRAMMEIER JOHN
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.73
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.46
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.83
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
66.0
3.73
0.47
0.97
2.29
3.46
2.9%
2025Q3
92
63.8
3.80
0.41
1.05
2.33
3.58
3.7%
2025Q2
91
66.2
3.58
0.47
0.87
2.25
3.35
8.4%
2025Q1
90
61.0
3.95
0.38
1.01
2.55
3.70
13.9%
2024Q4
92
57.9
3.97
0.44
1.05
2.48
3.66
6.7%
2024Q3
92
60.0
3.62
0.39
0.82
2.40
3.44
8.1%
2024Q2
91
58.6
3.60
0.44
0.69
2.48
3.47
8.9%
2024Q1
91
55.6
3.69
0.48
0.65
2.56
3.48
6.2%
2023Q4
92
56.1
3.64
0.36
0.77
2.51
3.52
8.5%
2023Q3
92
56.3
2.44
0.25
0.43
1.76
2.29
18.6%
2023Q2
91
56.7
3.76
0.46
0.70
2.59
3.53
18.4%
2023Q1
90
56.4
3.75
0.38
0.82
2.54
3.63
9.8%
2022Q4
92
56.5
3.29
0.36
0.70
2.23
2.94
7.0%
2022Q3
92
55.8
2.53
0.20
0.78
1.55
1.87
12.3%
2022Q2
91
55.5
1.89
0.21
0.44
1.25
1.11
21.0%
2022Q1
90
54.5
1.52
0.19
0.41
0.92
0.94
8.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
—
2025-12-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-12-10
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2025-09-05
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-09-05
2025-05-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2025-05-29
2025-05-07
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-05-29
2025-03-26
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2025-04-11
2024-03-27
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-04-11
2024-03-27
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-11
2024-03-27
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2024-04-11
2023-07-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-08-18
2019-11-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2019-12-05
2019-11-21
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2019-12-05
2019-11-21
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2019-12-05
2019-11-21
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-11-27
2018-11-29
Health
F0620
Not require residents to give up Medicare or Medicaid benefits, or pay privately as a condition of admission; and must tell residents what care they do not provide.
D
2019-01-07
2018-11-29
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2018-12-31
2018-11-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-01-01
2018-11-29
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2018-12-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MOSKOWITZ, JAY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MESNER, ARLENE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2008-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
BRAMMEIER, JOHN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PFALZGRAFF, MARY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
BRAMMEIER, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
KORETKE, MARY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-01-04
current
pecos_ownership
MOSKOWITZ, JAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
PINON MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ST PETERS, CLAUDIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLAUDIA ST PETERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2019-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAY MOSKOWITZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
82%
2011-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAY MOSKOWITZ
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
38%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARLENE MESNER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2008-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BRAMMEIER
CORPORATE OFFICER
18%
2011-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BRAMMEIER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY PFALZGRAFF
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2008-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY KORETKE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2010-01-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$62,047
—
—
$35,900
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$496,704
—
—
$1,357
—
4
—
2022-12-31
$847,404
—
—
$38,065
$16,270
6
—
2021-12-31
$867,788
—
—
$2,355
—
6
—
2020-12-31
$883,881
—
—
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08085
acs median gross
0
$824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
fmr
0
$884
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08085
acs median gross
1
$539
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
fmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08085
acs median gross
2
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
fmr
2
$1,168
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08085
acs median gross
3
$1,424
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
fmr
3
$1,624
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08085
acs median gross
4
$2,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
fmr
4
$1,959
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08085
acs median gross
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08085
acs recent mover gross
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81425
acs median gross
2
$1,092
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81425
acs median gross
3
$974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81425
acs median gross
4
$2,689
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 81425
acs median gross
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 81425
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 110
4
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
payment standard 90
4
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 81425
safmr
4
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.