Reads as: riskier than 80.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.7 vs natl
CERISE FREDERICK
34 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
CASTANEDA EDMUNDO
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.5 vs natl
DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
CANTEX HEALTH CARE CENTERS LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
CERISE FREDERICK
34 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
CASTANEDA EDMUNDO
36 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.86
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.80
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.88
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
116.3
2.86
0.35
0.91
1.60
2.80
0.2%
2025Q3
92
109.8
2.80
0.40
0.86
1.53
2.77
0.4%
2025Q2
91
113.8
2.85
0.34
0.91
1.60
2.70
0.3%
2025Q1
90
113.6
2.83
0.27
0.98
1.58
2.66
0.2%
2024Q4
92
115.7
4.02
0.52
1.31
2.19
3.84
0.6%
2024Q3
92
106.5
2.69
0.31
0.96
1.43
2.55
1.0%
2024Q2
91
97.3
2.88
0.36
1.03
1.49
2.67
1.1%
2024Q1
91
96.2
2.70
0.32
1.08
1.29
2.50
1.0%
2023Q4
92
87.8
2.87
0.21
1.31
1.35
2.74
0.9%
2023Q3
92
83.6
3.05
0.28
1.26
1.51
2.78
1.2%
2023Q2
91
83.5
3.03
0.38
1.20
1.44
2.75
1.0%
2023Q1
90
88.5
2.85
0.31
1.16
1.39
2.60
1.1%
2022Q4
92
87.4
2.98
0.34
1.13
1.50
2.73
0.9%
2022Q3
92
86.3
2.93
0.36
1.10
1.48
2.71
0.4%
2022Q2
91
94.2
2.58
0.27
0.97
1.34
2.42
0.0%
2022Q1
90
93.2
2.75
0.22
1.14
1.39
2.64
5.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
D × 13E × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-18
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
E
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-12-23
2025-12-18
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2025-12-23
2024-09-26
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-25
2024-09-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-25
2023-08-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-08-25
2023-08-17
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-08-25
2023-06-29
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-07-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELL, JOSEPH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
BRATTY, JERRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
BRATTY, RUDOLPH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
CANTEX HEALTH CARE CENTERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASTANEDA, EDMUNDO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
CERISE, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
COHNREZNICK LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
DENISON HEALTH CARE CENTER LTD CO
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
DENISON HEALTH CARE CENTER LTD. CO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DENISON HEALTH CARE CENTER LTD. CO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST DENISON CAPITAL FUNDING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-09-11
current
pecos_ownership
FURMAN, SARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
JNC CONSULTANT PHARMACY SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONGO, AMEDEO
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LONGO, DEAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LONGO, LAWRENCE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LONGO, PETER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
PANTALONE, ROCCO
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
PIVOT REHABILITATION SERVICES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANTOS, JENNIFER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN DUCK, CPA PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
UNDERHILL, ROBIN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-29
current
pecos_ownership
VELAYO, MARIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
EDMUNDO CASTANEDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK CERISE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA VELAYO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH FURMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$32,550
—
—
—
$4,770
0
—
2021-09-30
$50,622
—
—
—
$6,305
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48181
acs median gross
0
$892
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
fmr
0
$1,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48181
acs median gross
1
$1,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
fmr
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48181
acs median gross
2
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
fmr
2
$1,351
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48181
acs median gross
3
$1,685
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
fmr
3
$1,879
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48181
acs median gross
4
$1,856
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
fmr
4
$2,157
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48181
acs median gross
5
$2,580
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
acs median gross
$1,310
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48181
acs recent mover gross
$1,485
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
0
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
1
$980
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
2
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
3
$1,652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
4
$1,402
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
5
$2,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs median gross
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75020
acs recent mover gross
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75020
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 110
2
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 90
2
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
safmr
2
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 110
3
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 90
3
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
safmr
3
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 110
4
$2,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
payment standard 90
4
$1,872
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75020
safmr
4
$2,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.