Reads as: riskier than 91.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.02
2.78
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.07
0.18
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
2.72
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.07
2.80
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.2
3.02
0.07
1.00
1.95
2.88
0.0%
2025Q3
92
50.2
3.17
0.14
0.95
2.08
3.17
0.0%
2025Q2
91
50.6
3.19
0.11
0.98
2.09
3.26
14.7%
2025Q1
90
49.4
3.24
0.04
1.07
2.14
3.08
28.3%
2024Q4
92
53.0
2.97
0.04
1.04
1.89
2.79
24.5%
2024Q3
92
54.3
3.04
0.05
1.15
1.84
2.90
28.7%
2024Q2
91
49.9
3.17
0.01
1.36
1.80
2.92
28.6%
2024Q1
91
51.8
2.92
0.02
0.98
1.93
2.84
28.7%
2023Q4
92
58.3
2.85
0.04
0.81
2.00
2.81
34.0%
2023Q3
92
57.1
2.73
0.06
0.77
1.90
2.65
27.1%
2023Q2
91
55.0
2.83
0.05
0.77
2.00
2.88
29.1%
2023Q1
90
53.7
2.64
0.22
0.72
1.70
2.79
15.8%
2022Q4
92
51.3
2.69
0.26
0.76
1.67
2.67
11.2%
2022Q3
92
49.6
2.41
0.32
0.64
1.45
2.27
12.3%
2022Q2
91
52.3
2.38
0.15
0.71
1.52
2.20
33.0%
2022Q1
90
53.5
2.19
0.05
0.86
1.29
2.19
14.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
J
—
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-07-14
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-07-14
2024-04-18
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2023-10-26
2024-04-18
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2024-07-15
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-07-15
2023-03-06
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-05-25
2023-03-06
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-05-25
2023-03-06
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2023-05-25
2023-03-06
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-05-25
2023-03-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-25
2023-03-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-05-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
7
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
TRUMBO, JAY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
VINSON, JOHN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORR, MERICA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-08-24
current
pecos_ownership
MERICA CORR
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-03-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN VINSON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
34%
2012-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAY TRUMBO
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$418,443
—
$418,443
—
—
3
—
2024-06-30
$457,388
—
$457,388
—
—
3
—
2023-06-30
$361,810
—
$361,810
—
—
3
—
2022-06-30
$345,529
—
$345,529
—
—
3
—
2021-06-30
$285,193
—
$285,193
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 40051
acs median gross
0
$650
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
fmr
0
$692
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40051
acs median gross
1
$650
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
fmr
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40051
acs median gross
2
$842
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
fmr
2
$1,004
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40051
acs median gross
3
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
fmr
3
$1,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40051
acs median gross
4
$1,336
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
fmr
4
$1,684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 40051
acs median gross
5
$1,083
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
acs median gross
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 40051
acs recent mover gross
$1,023
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
0
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
1
$707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
2
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
3
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
4
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs median gross
$887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 73018
acs recent mover gross
$1,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 73018
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 110
4
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
payment standard 90
4
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 73018
safmr
4
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.