Reads as: riskier than 86.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
FREUND NOCHUM
109 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
TRAVITSKY AARON
106 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
DAGAN AMITAI
101 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM
100 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
102 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
GOLDBERGER FAIGY
111 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
20 chains
GOLDBERGER FAIGY
68 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
TRAVITSKY AARON
153 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
111 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.41
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.25
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.47
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
101.5
2.41
0.36
0.39
1.66
2.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
100.5
2.69
0.49
0.36
1.84
2.65
0.0%
2025Q2
91
95.1
2.52
0.47
0.41
1.64
2.48
0.0%
2025Q1
90
101.5
2.35
0.37
0.45
1.54
2.25
0.0%
2024Q4
92
97.0
2.60
0.44
0.54
1.62
2.44
0.0%
2024Q3
92
101.9
2.41
0.40
0.49
1.52
2.33
0.0%
2024Q2
91
98.1
2.33
0.41
0.49
1.43
2.23
0.0%
2024Q1
91
100.8
2.01
0.39
0.40
1.22
1.90
21.3%
2023Q4
92
98.5
2.48
0.37
0.59
1.52
2.50
32.8%
2023Q3
92
95.4
2.32
0.38
0.53
1.41
2.40
33.5%
2023Q2
91
97.5
2.40
0.39
0.50
1.50
2.29
18.4%
2023Q1
90
92.6
2.48
0.48
0.51
1.49
2.35
15.2%
2022Q4
92
100.4
2.33
0.38
0.48
1.47
2.27
13.3%
2022Q3
92
101.4
2.67
0.40
0.51
1.76
2.64
19.3%
2022Q2
91
102.8
3.03
0.40
0.65
1.97
2.93
32.4%
2022Q1
90
101.2
2.41
0.56
0.36
1.49
2.32
22.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
—
2026-04-29
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
—
2026-02-27
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-03-02
2026-02-11
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2026-03-06
2026-02-11
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-03-06
2025-12-10
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-12-11
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2025-11-24
2025-11-06
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-11-11
2025-06-12
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2025-06-26
2025-06-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-06-26
2025-06-12
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-06-26
2025-06-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-06-26
2025-02-05
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-02-21
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-12-23
2024-05-02
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2024-05-15
2024-05-02
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2024-05-15
2024-05-02
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-05-15
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-05-15
2024-01-12
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-02-12
2024-01-12
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-02-12
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2023-12-23
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-23
2023-08-21
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-09-29
2023-08-21
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-09-29
2023-08-21
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-09-29
2023-08-21
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-09-29
2023-08-01
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
J
2023-07-27
2023-03-16
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-03-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
2122 PARK BEND DR OPCO LLC
—
—
2025-08-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
2122 PARK BEND DR OPCO, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHUMLEY, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAGAN, AMITAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
FREUND, NOCHUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, ABRAHAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, FAIGY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
RODRIGUEZ, ADRIANNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-19
current
pecos_ownership
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-08-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
TRAVITSKY, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARD CHUMLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON TRAVITSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADRIANNA RODRIGUEZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOCHUM FREUND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48453
acs median gross
0
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
1
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
2
$1,849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
2
$1,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
3
$2,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
3
$2,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
4
$2,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
5
$2,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs median gross
$1,744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs recent mover gross
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
0
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
1
$1,572
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
2
$1,802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
3
$1,975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs recent mover gross
$1,788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78758
payment standard 110
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
0
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
2
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
2
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
2
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
3
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
3
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
4
$3,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
4
$2,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
4
$2,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.