Reads as: riskier than 67.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
24 chains
LUMENT REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC
45 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
DAVIS DAVID
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
BARNEY LEIGH
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
95 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
119 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
42 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT LLC
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.40
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.70
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.30
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.44
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
55.4
2.40
0.70
0.29
1.42
2.30
0.0%
2025Q3
92
56.1
2.46
0.67
0.31
1.49
2.27
0.0%
2025Q2
91
54.7
2.48
0.70
0.32
1.46
2.50
0.0%
2025Q1
90
54.4
2.46
0.79
0.27
1.40
2.57
0.0%
2024Q4
92
51.0
2.79
0.86
0.28
1.64
2.77
0.0%
2024Q3
92
53.0
3.03
0.88
0.34
1.82
3.02
0.0%
2024Q2
91
52.7
3.23
0.81
0.45
1.96
3.16
0.0%
2024Q1
91
52.2
2.86
0.69
0.52
1.65
2.98
0.0%
2023Q4
92
51.8
2.75
0.60
0.50
1.64
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
53.2
2.71
0.56
0.51
1.64
2.73
0.0%
2023Q2
91
55.5
2.37
0.52
0.44
1.41
2.32
0.0%
2023Q1
90
55.6
1.88
0.26
0.50
1.12
1.87
0.0%
2022Q4
92
53.8
1.76
0.34
0.37
1.06
1.70
0.0%
2022Q3
92
52.7
2.24
0.38
0.40
1.46
2.22
0.0%
2022Q2
91
55.1
2.07
0.30
0.44
1.33
1.95
0.0%
2022Q1
90
52.4
1.97
0.43
0.49
1.05
1.97
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 14F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-15
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2026-02-06
2024-12-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-01-03
2024-12-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-01-03
2023-11-06
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-06
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-06
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-06
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-11-27
2023-11-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
51
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
BODNEY, STEPHEN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, RICHARD
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
1991-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
CLUNIE, LISA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG, KEVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, DAVID
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
HARRISON COUNTY HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-09-23
current
pecos_ownership
HESS, JUDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HESS, JUDY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
LUMENT REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHICKLES, LARRY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHIREMAN, KATHY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHIREMAN, KATHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OF BATESVILLE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OF BATESVILLE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OPERATIONS OF BATESVILLE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITIS, HARRIS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WISEMAN, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPCO FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEIGH BARNEY
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
68%
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DAVIS
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2019-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2018-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDY HESS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY SHIREMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HARRIS WHITIS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDY HESS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY SHIREMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CRAIG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY SHICKLES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA CLUNIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK WISEMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD BROWN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
1991-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN BODNEY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,647,083
—
—
$592,111
$206,538
4
—
2023-12-31
$1,441,923
—
—
$564,426
$169,250
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,253,152
—
—
$456,900
$159,879
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,297,931
—
—
$475,584
$146,274
3
—
2020-12-31
$158,439
—
—
$57,812
$21,083
3
—
2020-10-31
$964,284
—
—
$394,826
$124,611
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18137
acs median gross
0
$1,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
fmr
0
$681
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18137
acs median gross
1
$685
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
fmr
1
$752
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18137
acs median gross
2
$863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
fmr
2
$987
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18137
acs median gross
3
$980
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
fmr
3
$1,302
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18137
acs median gross
4
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
fmr
4
$1,307
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18137
acs median gross
$839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18137
acs recent mover gross
$830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
0
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
1
$737
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
2
$797
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
3
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
4
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs median gross
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47006
acs recent mover gross
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47006
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 110
3
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 90
3
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
safmr
3
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 110
4
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
payment standard 90
4
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47006
safmr
4
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.