Composite
85.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 84.8 | 56.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.57 | in index |
| financial risk | 67.6 | 57.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.60 | in index |
| staffing risk | 78.3 | 78.3 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 15.06 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 33.2 | 23.1 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.66 | in index |
| chow risk | 50.8 | 57.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.86 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 56.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.2 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 91.2 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 57.5 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 23.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 78.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 93.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 73.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.4 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.1 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 23.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 23.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 78.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 78.3 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 9.33 | -0.94 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.77 | -0.38 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Occupancy | 0.80 | -0.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.84 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.62 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.93 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 59.0 | 2.84 | 0.17 | 0.74 | 1.92 | 2.62 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 55.9 | 2.83 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 1.91 | 2.61 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 52.2 | 3.14 | 0.26 | 0.66 | 2.23 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 55.3 | 3.11 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 2.07 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 56.9 | 3.61 | 0.26 | 0.88 | 2.46 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 53.7 | 3.68 | 0.29 | 0.99 | 2.40 | 3.23 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 54.0 | 3.16 | 0.28 | 0.88 | 2.00 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 54.5 | 3.10 | 0.27 | 0.99 | 1.84 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 57.0 | 2.81 | 0.13 | 1.07 | 1.61 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 61.8 | 2.58 | 0.21 | 0.82 | 1.55 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 60.9 | 2.58 | 0.22 | 0.88 | 1.48 | 2.45 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 61.5 | 2.40 | 0.23 | 0.85 | 1.32 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 54.3 | 2.42 | 0.25 | 0.91 | 1.26 | 2.04 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 47.2 | 2.57 | 0.26 | 0.81 | 1.50 | 2.29 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 41.0 | 2.69 | 0.29 | 0.97 | 1.43 | 2.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 45.1 | 2.38 | 0.37 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | E | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-06 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-06 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-06 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-06 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | F | 2026-01-23 |
| 2026-01-06 | Health · complaint | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2026-01-23 |
| 2024-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-11-08 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2024-07-10 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-07-12 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-07-10 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-11-28 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-11-28 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2023-11-28 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health · complaint | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | F | 2023-07-14 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | F | 2023-07-14 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | E | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0712 | Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits. | D | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0800 | Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs. | E | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | E | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2021-11-04 |
| 2021-10-28 | Health | F0839 | Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws. | F | 2021-11-04 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LP PROPCO LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| LP PROPCO LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| POINTE WOODS INVESTMENT LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOLDSTEIN, JEFFREY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHERMAN, ALEXANDER | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHERMAN, SAMUEL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LP PROPCO LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| LP PROPCO LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ALEXANDER SHERMAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY GOLDSTEIN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SAMUEL SHERMAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LP PROPCO LC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-01 | — | LP OPCO LLC | ES3 MANAGEMENT INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 0 | $478 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | fmr | 0 | $715 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 1 | $638 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | fmr | 1 | $840 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 2 | $822 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | fmr | 2 | $1,037 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 3 | $974 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | fmr | 3 | $1,257 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,081 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | fmr | 4 | $1,429 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | 5 | $951 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39007 | acs median gross | $828 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39007 | acs recent mover gross | $811 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44030 | acs median gross | 1 | $447 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44030 | acs median gross | 2 | $751 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44030 | acs median gross | 3 | $915 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44030 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,100 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44030 | acs median gross | $774 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44030 | acs recent mover gross | $743 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | safmr | 0 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | safmr | 1 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,062 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | safmr | 3 | $1,180 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,474 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,206 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44030 | safmr | 4 | $1,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |