Reads as: riskier than 46.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
COOPER BENJAMIN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
COOPER JAMES
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.9 vs natl
HEALTH CARE SOLUTIONS LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.6 vs natl
DVORAK NORA
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PHARMACY CONSULTS LLC
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCGINNIS LARRY
36 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.95
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.10
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.74
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.04
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.5
2.95
0.10
0.70
2.15
2.74
0.0%
2025Q3
92
70.7
3.02
0.13
0.67
2.22
2.72
0.0%
2025Q2
91
70.8
3.04
0.20
0.58
2.26
2.81
0.0%
2025Q1
90
67.4
3.27
0.17
0.66
2.44
3.18
0.0%
2024Q4
92
64.5
3.26
0.15
0.83
2.28
3.17
0.0%
2024Q3
92
67.5
3.27
0.08
0.83
2.37
2.98
0.0%
2024Q2
91
71.2
3.25
0.11
0.83
2.31
2.92
0.0%
2024Q1
91
71.7
3.04
0.02
0.81
2.21
2.87
0.0%
2023Q4
92
70.7
3.18
0.09
0.75
2.34
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
71.0
3.29
0.06
0.77
2.46
3.15
0.0%
2023Q2
91
74.2
2.92
0.09
0.61
2.22
2.70
0.0%
2023Q1
90
74.7
2.93
0.14
0.64
2.15
2.75
0.0%
2022Q4
92
72.0
3.09
0.04
0.76
2.29
2.97
0.0%
2022Q3
92
70.4
3.07
0.00
0.77
2.30
3.01
0.0%
2022Q2
91
69.8
2.96
0.00
0.82
2.15
2.89
0.0%
2022Q1
90
73.2
2.96
0.00
0.82
2.13
2.86
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
B × 1D × 6E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-12-14
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
E
2024-01-13
2023-12-14
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-01-13
2022-10-06
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
B
2022-10-06
2022-10-06
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-10-31
2022-10-06
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2022-10-31
2022-10-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-10-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMS, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANNON, MAGGIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DVORAK, NORA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-03
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIS, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH CARE SOLUTIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
INCITE REHAB, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOEHLER, TOBEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC SYSTEMS/RX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAINORD, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGINNIS, LARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERKEL, ROBIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEDIGO, RITA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-08-10
current
pecos_ownership
PEDIGO, RITA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACY CONSULTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANCE HEALTH CARE, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TURNEY, NATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-12-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAGGIE CANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2023-07-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ELLIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORA DVORAK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RITA PEDIGO
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2005-08-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOBEY KOEHLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MCGINNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN TURNEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RITA PEDIGO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT COOPER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBIN MERKEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
WILLIAM MAINORD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$692,248
—
—
$228,619
$68,874
13
—
2023-12-31
$784,030
—
—
$243,763
$78,972
13
—
2022-12-31
$625,318
—
—
$249,025
$52,977
13
—
2021-12-31
$516,151
—
—
$213,454
$44,069
13
—
2020-12-31
$706,871
—
—
$370,490
$58,600
13
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05049
fmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05049
acs median gross
1
$409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05049
fmr
1
$746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05049
acs median gross
2
$606
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05049
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05049
acs median gross
3
$769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05049
fmr
3
$1,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05049
fmr
4
$1,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05049
acs median gross
$626
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05049
acs recent mover gross
$733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72513
acs median gross
1
$389
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72513
acs median gross
2
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72513
acs median gross
3
$840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72513
acs median gross
$675
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72513
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 110
4
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
payment standard 90
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72513
safmr
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.